Hong Kong: 2020 outlook slashed as protests rumble on

Crippling social and political unrest has battered Hong Kong's economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts.

focuseconomics_hongkong_december_2019_0.png
 

Until the middle of 2019, our panelists were upbeat about Hong Kong's prospects for next year, with our Consensus Forecast having seen GDP growth tracking at just under 2.5%. Since then, however, crippling social and political unrest has battered the economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts. 

Underlining the severity of the situation, Hong Kong's retail sales plunged 26.2% in October, marking an all-time low and suggesting the economy is heading for a sharp contraction in the final quarter of this year. With political uncertainty set to persist for the foreseeable future, and investment and consumer spending likely to suffer in tandem, our December publication projects growth of just 0.7% in 2020.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.

Date: December 13, 2019

Featured Posts

Tags

Nordic Economies Unemployment rate Central America chile G7 Spain Brexit Company News Forex Canada Budget deficit Palladium Oil public debt Commodities Turkey Inflation Eastern Europe Ukraine Tunisia Copper Banking Sector Trade Infographic CIS Countries Economic Growth (GDP) United Kingdom Sub-Saharan Africa Australia Political Risk TPS Asian Financial Crisis Greece GDP European Union Investment Consensus Forecast Gold Agricultural Commodities Israel election Colombia Italy Argentina Portugal Cryptocurrency Resource Curse Latin America economic growth Nigeria Cannabis Major Economies Economic Crisis Asean Bitcoin Draghi Precious Metals Commodities Exports Energy Commodities Exchange Rate Economic Debt MENA Emerging Markets oil prices digitalcurrencies Costa Rica; GDP; Budget Japan Germany TPP Africa Venezuela Russia India scotiabank Economists Base Metals Commodities Asia Mexico precious metals Brazil China Housing Market Canadian Economy France Base Metals Eurozone Lagarde UK interview USA Healthcare IMF OPEC Vietnam Iran United States South Africa centralbanks Euro Area

Twitter @FocusEconomics

  • ASEAN's economic outlook for 2022 remains positive, following 2021's mild projected expansion. This year, GDP growt… https://t.co/Y9yuAuAqxC

    1 day ago

  • The #oil market bulls are back, but will the rally last? Economist Matthew Cunningham examines what's behind our fr… https://t.co/3BBFL0Knqr

    2 days ago

  • The return of the left, fiscal troubles and political polarization: In our latest special report, economist Oliver… https://t.co/MDEOqwoVwx

    2 weeks ago

  • How will Mexico's economy fare this year? Our consensus forecast of 49 analysts projects 2.9% growth, which is slig… https://t.co/JZ7tzGpspg

    3 weeks ago

  • Are central banks ahead or behind the curve? How will rapid tightening impact the global recovery? We take a closer… https://t.co/OVrmptt72l

    2 months ago

Blog archive

Search form