Hong Kong: 2020 outlook slashed as protests rumble on

Crippling social and political unrest has battered Hong Kong's economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts.

focuseconomics_hongkong_december_2019_0.png
 

Until the middle of 2019, our panelists were upbeat about Hong Kong's prospects for next year, with our Consensus Forecast having seen GDP growth tracking at just under 2.5%. Since then, however, crippling social and political unrest has battered the economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts. 

Underlining the severity of the situation, Hong Kong's retail sales plunged 26.2% in October, marking an all-time low and suggesting the economy is heading for a sharp contraction in the final quarter of this year. With political uncertainty set to persist for the foreseeable future, and investment and consumer spending likely to suffer in tandem, our December publication projects growth of just 0.7% in 2020.


 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.

Date: December 13, 2019

Twitter @FocusEconomics

  • Quickly and easily compare the latest forecasts for more than 200 economies and over 30 commodities prices across a… https://t.co/v3NF2fHdzJ

    20 hours ago

  • The UK has been buffered in recent days by a tumbling pound and spiking bond yields. In our latest insight piece, w… https://t.co/XhK7bhkxsB

    1 day ago

  • Global inflation will be at a multi-decade high this year, although forecasts vary wildly from country to country,… https://t.co/PjV4g9LvO4

    1 day ago

  • Elevated commodity prices, supply constraints and tight labor markets have spurred global inflation to its current… https://t.co/Bbhrm8gUpJ

    4 days ago

  • Our analysts' forecasts for average 2022 Euro area inflation have risen uninterruptedly so far this year, and now s… https://t.co/0eTYsBY7V9

    4 days ago

Blog archive

Search form