Hong Kong: 2020 outlook slashed as protests rumble on

Crippling social and political unrest has battered Hong Kong's economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts.

focuseconomics_hongkong_december_2019_0.png
 

Until the middle of 2019, our panelists were upbeat about Hong Kong's prospects for next year, with our Consensus Forecast having seen GDP growth tracking at just under 2.5%. Since then, however, crippling social and political unrest has battered the economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts. 

Underlining the severity of the situation, Hong Kong's retail sales plunged 26.2% in October, marking an all-time low and suggesting the economy is heading for a sharp contraction in the final quarter of this year. With political uncertainty set to persist for the foreseeable future, and investment and consumer spending likely to suffer in tandem, our December publication projects growth of just 0.7% in 2020.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.

Date: December 13, 2019

Featured Posts

Tags

Italy Unemployment rate Tunisia Economists Qatar TPS interview public debt Australia Copper Iran Colombia economic growth Central America Eurozone Asia Venezuela IMF Vietnam Sterlin election Eastern Europe GDP Brazil Resource Curse Company News Healthcare Brexit China G7 Bitcoin France Banking Sector Canadian Economy Energy Commodities Germany Argentina Economic Growth (GDP) scotiabank Oil Nordic Economies Mexico Cryptocurrency Emerging Markets Lagarde Forex OPEC Costa Rica; GDP; Budget Economic Outlook European Union Cannabis Turkey Exchange Rate Africa Fed UK Latin America oil prices ECB Housing Market Interest rate Draghi TPP Major Economies Nigeria Economic Crisis Asean Commodities Infographic Canada Russia MENA Precious Metals Commodities South Africa Israel USA United States Trade Ukraine TPI centralbanks Government Bond WorldCup Greece Political Risk Agricultural Commodities Dolar digitalcurrencies Gold Spain Inflation Portugal Euro Area Palladium Base Metals United Kingdom Consensus Forecast Sub-Saharan Africa USD Exports chile India Economic Debt Budget deficit Asian Financial Crisis Japan Base Metals Commodities precious metals Euro CIS Countries Exchange Rates Investment

Twitter @FocusEconomics

  • Price pressures will soften in 2023 on slowing economic activity and lower commodity prices. Nevertheless,… https://t.co/oNFT7MF3sH

    5 days ago

  • In our latest insight piece, we interview Mihály András Kovács, senior advisor at OTP Bank, and Hrvoje Dolenec, chi… https://t.co/Gzrcid43Nk

    6 days ago

  • In our latest post, economist Adrià Solanes Roca discusses the upcoming presidential elections in Cyprus and their… https://t.co/T4Ikur25Qi

    6 days ago

  • In our latest post, economist Magdalena Preshlenova discusses the benefits and challenges for the Croatian economy… https://t.co/I3ILTmu4v6

    1 week ago

  • In our latest webinar, our economists examine the outlook for Latin America's economy this year. Spoiler alert: Eco… https://t.co/wCXk7AY32n

    1 week ago

Blog archive

Search form