Hong Kong: 2020 outlook slashed as protests rumble on

Crippling social and political unrest has battered Hong Kong's economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts.

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Until the middle of 2019, our panelists were upbeat about Hong Kong's prospects for next year, with our Consensus Forecast having seen GDP growth tracking at just under 2.5%. Since then, however, crippling social and political unrest has battered the economy and caused our panelists to rapidly revise down their forecasts. 

Underlining the severity of the situation, Hong Kong's retail sales plunged 26.2% in October, marking an all-time low and suggesting the economy is heading for a sharp contraction in the final quarter of this year. With political uncertainty set to persist for the foreseeable future, and investment and consumer spending likely to suffer in tandem, our December publication projects growth of just 0.7% in 2020.

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.

Author: William O'Connell, Editor

Date: December 13, 2019

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