Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth should remain near 2025’s rate in 2026, buoyed by relatively low interest rates, rising investment growth and the boost to exports from improving industrial activity and renewed momentum in key trading partner Germany. However, a prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to higher-than-expected inflation and interest rates, and cap domestic demand.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation jumped to an over two-year high of 4.5% in April amid rising energy prices tied to the Iran war. Panelists have again raised their forecasts: 2026 CEE inflation will average close to 2025’s rate on pricier energy and dynamic wage growth; currency weakness vs the euro in some countries will also fuel price growth.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.1 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -0.9 | 3.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |