Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
GDP growth in CEE will surpass 2024’s level in 2025 thanks to EU funds disbursements, interest rate cuts and rising EU demand buoying fixed investment, industrial output and exports. However, public and private spending will decelerate. U.S. tariff hikes on EU exports pose a major downside risk, while earlier-than-expected fiscal stimulus in Germany is an upside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In February, regional inflation stabilized at January’s 13-month high and likely remained elevated in March. Our Consensus is for average CEE inflation to rise above 2024’s level in 2025 on stronger GDP growth and lower interest rates across the region. Commodity price spikes and retaliatory EU tariffs on U.S. imports are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 7.8 | -2.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.8 | 53.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.13 |