Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
CEE aggregate GDP growth should slow in 2026 as weaker spending weighs on activity. Stronger investment and exports, aided by Germany’s industrial recovery, should cushion the slowdown, but a prolonged Middle East conflict and adverse weather pose downside risks, with the latter particularly threatening agriculture, industry and power supply.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In July, regional inflation fell to 3.6% (June: 3.9%), its lowest since the Iran war began in late February. CEE inflation is set to be among the softest of the post-pandemic era in 2026, as weaker private spending outweighs pressure from higher energy prices. Weather risks are an increasingly likely upside risk to inflation.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.6 | 3.4 | 8.2 | -0.9 | 3.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |