Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth is projected to moderate slightly in 2026, sitting below the past decade trend as private consumption slows. Still, firmer investment and stronger exports, supported by Germany’s industrial recovery, should provide offsets. Renewed conflict in the Middle East could lift inflation and interest rates, posing a risk to domestic demand.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In May, regional inflation inched down to 4.4% from April’s over two-year high of 4.5%. This year, CEE inflation is seen hovering close to 2025’s rate, propped up by high global energy costs and strong wage growth. Still, softer private spending growth will help keep price pressures below the prior decade average.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.3 | -0.9 | 3.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.20 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |