Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for GDP growth in CEE to exceed 2024’s level in 2025 as interest rate cuts and stronger EU demand support fixed investment, industrial production and exports. That said, private and public spending will lose impetus in most CEE countries. U.S. tariff hikes pose a major downside risk.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In April, regional inflation fell from March’s level, edging closer to levels seen at end-2024 and hovering around the past-decade average. Available data suggests that May might have seen inflation soften further. Price pressures in CEE should surpass 2024’s level in 2025 as a whole on stronger GDP growth and rate cuts. Commodity price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 7.8 | -2.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.8 | 53.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.13 |