Venezuela - Inflation (end of period)

Inflation continues rising in June

The available evidence continues to point to sky-rocketing inflation in crisis-hit Venezuela. Although no official data has been released this year, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists estimate that inflation has worsened from December 2014’s 68.5% (the last month for which official data are available) in the first half of 2015. The panel estimates that inflation jumped in June, from May’s 117.6% to 126.4%. If confirmed, June’s result would mark a multi-year high.

A sharp drop in the price for oil, which accounts for the vast majority of Venezuela’s dollar income, has aggravated dollar and basic goods shortages that is fueling inflationary pressures. On top of this, the government maintains a complex system of exchange rates – with the official pegged at 6.3 VEF per USD and large fuel and electricity subsidies which adds pressure on the government’s finances and intensifies dollar shortages. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation remaining elevated in the coming months and expect inflation to end the year at 144.5%, which is up 4.4 percentage points from last year’s forecast. For 2016, the panel foresees inflation easing to 104.3%.

Venezuela - Inflation (eop) Data

2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)27.2  27.6  20.1  56.2  68.5  

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Venezuela Inflation (eop) Chart

Venezuela Inflation
Note: Annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Venezuela Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.

Venezuela Facts

Bond Yield5.50186.8 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate6.300.0 %Aug 25
Stock Market14,876-0.32 %Aug 25

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