Japan - GDP
Japan’s economy exits recession in Q4; growth revised downward on falling investment
Although revised data confirmed that the Japanese economy exited recession in Q4, growth in the final quarter of 2014 was lower than initially expected. GDP expanded 1.5% in Q4 over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), according to new data released on 11 March. The reading was below the 2.2% increase reported in the first release. On an annual basis, economic activity fell 0.8% in Q4, which undershot the 0.5% drop tallied in the first estimate.
The downwardly revised figure showed that domestic demand was weaker than previously estimated, while the contribution to growth from the external sector was left unchanged. Although growth in both private consumption and public spending fared better compared to the initial estimate, expanding 2.0% (previously reported: +1.1% quarter-on-quarter SAAR) and 1.2% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR) respectively, a downward revision to investment drove down overall GDP. Gross fixed capital formation declined 0.1% (previously reported: +0.1% qoq SAAR) and private non-residential investment contracted 0.3% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 1.8% and 2.3% in the fiscal year 2015, which ends in March 2016. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.5% and 1.7%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in calendar year 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, the panel sees the economy growing 1.5%.
Japan - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-5.5||4.7||-0.5||1.4||1.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan GDP Chart
Source: Cabinet Office and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||0.33||-0.30 %||Apr 16|
|Exchange Rate||119.0||-0.12 %||Apr 16|
|Stock Market||19,886||0.08 %||Apr 16|
See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.
April 17, 2015
Consumer sentiment rose from the 40.9 recorded in February to 41.7 in March.
April 13, 2015
Core machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period) contracted in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that business investment remains subdued.
April 1, 2015
According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly TANKAN business survey, sentiment among large manufacturers held steady at Q4’s 12 in Q1.
March 30, 2015
In February, industrial production declined 3.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the revised 3.8% increase recorded in January (previously reported: +4.0% month-on-month).
March 27, 2015
In February, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 0.1% over the previous month.