Exports G&S in France

France Exports G&S | Economic News & Forecasts

France - Exports Goods and Services

GDP rebounds in the second quarter

After the economy contracted in the first quarter due to the impact of rising prices, GDP returned to growth in Q2: Economic activity bounced back, expanding 0.5% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter, above the 0.2% contraction tallied in the first.

Private consumption slid at a softer pace of 0.2% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in Q2 from a 1.2% contraction in Q1. Government consumption, meanwhile, dropped at the sharpest pace since Q4 2021, contracting 0.2% (Q1: 0.0% s.a. qoq). In addition, fixed investment growth was steady at 0.5% in Q2, compared to the 0.5% increase logged in the prior quarter.

Exports of goods and services growth fell to 0.8% in Q2, marking the worst reading since Q1 2021 (Q1: +1.6% s.a. qoq). In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 0.6% in Q2 (Q1: +1.2% s.a. qoq).

On an annual basis, economic growth waned markedly to 4.2% in Q2, compared to the previous period's 4.8% expansion.

Looking ahead, analysts at the EIU expect GDP to swing into contraction in the coming quarters:

“We therefore forecast a recession in France, with small quarterly contractions in October-December 2022 and January-March 2023. This will drag growth in 2023 down to -0.3%. Economic activity will be held back by high inflation, weighing on consumers' purchasing power; global supply chain disruptions dating back to the pandemic, including shortages of semiconductors; a subdued external environment, with US growth slowing considerably; and tightening monetary policy, with interest rates rising sharply across Europe.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 2.4% in 2022, which unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 0.9% in 2023.

France - Exports G&S Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.4  1.8  4.6  4.6  1.8  

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