GDP in Egypt
Egypt - GDP
Economic growth picks up in October-December period
GDP increased an annual 3.8% in the October-December period (which is Q4 of calendar year 2016 and Q2 of Egypt’s 2017 fiscal year), according to the Ministry of Planning. Q4’s result marked an uptick compared to the 3.4% increase in Q3 but came in below the 4.0% expansion observed in the same quarter last year.
Although comprehensive data has not been released, the relatively meagre expansion was likely the result of deteriorating economic conditions among Egyptian households. Authorities’ efforts to improve the country’s weakened external position, which included the floating of the pound and the scrapping of multiple subsidies, have heavily dragged on private spending. Inflation has sky-rocketed, imported goods have become difficult to come by and basic goods—previously heavily subsidized—are now eating away at a sizeable part of the Egyptians’ budget. Likewise, government spending likely moderated in the quarter on the back of measures aimed at staunching the country’s soaring fiscal deficit. Conversely, investment growth is expected to have gathered momentum as investors make their way back into the country following years of uncertainty.
The external sector is unlikely to have performed much better. Egyptian exporting sectors, despite benefiting from the weakness of the pound and thus from increased competitiveness, are much less price elastic than importing sectors, and their ability to respond to tailwinds has so far proven limited. Several manufacturing sectors are highly dependent on imports, limiting any effect from a weak currency, while the tourist industry, one of the country’s main sources of foreign currency, has been hit hard by a string of terrorist attacks in recent years. Leading data for inventory drawdowns suggest that imports have not picked up considerably either, as unaffordable prices push manufacturers and consumers to seek domestic alternatives or use existing stocks.
The Egyptian economy remains heavily under pressure as the effects of economic reforms continue to unfold. In the near term, growth will be held back by a weak domestic economy and the need for fiscal consolidation. Nonetheless, an improved outlook for exports, much higher overseas investment and a more stable fiscal and economic environment are likely to prompt higher growth.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.4% in fiscal year 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2018, the panel sees economic growth at 3.8%.
Egypt - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.8||2.2||2.0||2.2||4.4|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Egypt GDP Chart
Source: Ministry of Planning.
|Bond Yield||17.25||0.0 %||May 10|
|Exchange Rate||18.11||0.06 %||May 10|
|Stock Market||1,177||0.24 %||May 10|
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May 10, 2017
In April, urban consumer prices rose 1.69% from the previous month, down from March’s 1.95%.
May 3, 2017
The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up from 45.9 in March to 47.4 in April, the highest reading in nine months.
April 11, 2017
In March, urban consumer prices rose 2.0% from the previous month.
April 4, 2017
Egyptian businesses continue to feel the pinch of a weak pound and subdued demand.
March 30, 2017
At the 30 March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) held fire and left all main interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting as authorities continue to expect the current jump in inflation to be short-lived.