GDP in Brazil
Brazil - GDP
Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) is the most important measure for evaluating the performance of Brazil’s economy (Economic Growth, GDP). The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) publishes GDP figures on an annual and quarterly basis. FocusEconomics regularly publishes news on Brazilian GDP (GDP News). The table below shows the change of price-adjusted GDP for Brazil, typically referred to as Brazil’s economic growth rate. A more complete assessment of Brazil’s GDP can be found below the table.
Brazil - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.0||1.9||3.0||0.5||-3.8|
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Brazil GDP Chart
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics.
OverviewGross domestic product (GDP) measures the economic performance of a country over a given period, typically a year or a quarter. It is therefore the most important economic indicator to evaluate the country’s economy (see the GDP page for more information on this indicator).
Brazil’s GDP data (National Accounts, NA) are produced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and are based on the most recent United Nations (UN) recommendations on the System of National Accounts (SNA 1993). The office’s data reach back to 1988 and the survey was restructured after 1998, when the results were integrated into the modern SNA.
Brazil GDP Growth Performance
In the 10 years before the global economic crisis, from 1999 to 2008, Brazil’s GDP grew 3.4% on average per year. This growth was driven, in part, by global demand for Brazilian commodities. After experiencing formidable growth in 2007 and 2008, Brazil’s economy shrank 0.3% in 2009 as demand for Brazil’s commodity-based exports fell and foreign credit waned. However, Brazil rebounded strongly the following year, growing 7.5%-the highest growth rate Brazil had experienced in 25 years. Since then, growth has slowed-partially due to rising inflation-and Brazil’s economy grew an average of 2.1% annually from 2011 to 2013.
Structure of Brazil Gross Domestic Product
Brazil’s economic growth over the past decade has been driven by growing private consumption. In recent years, Brazil has transformed from a nation of stark economic inequality, a small number of rich elites and a large number of poor, to a more equal, more developed society. In particular, a sizable middle class has emerged and private consumption accounts for more than 50% of economic activity today. The importance of the current account as a growth driver has diminished in recent years as large capital inflows have contributed to the appreciation of Brazil’s currency, hurting exports. Further, Brazil was a net importer from 2010 to 2012. During this time frame, investment contributed just under 20% of GDP and government consumption added just over 20%.
Services account for more than 65% of total economic activity and employ the majority of Brazil’s labor force. Major sectors include telecommunications, banking, energy and commerce. Brazil has the second largest industrial sector in the Americas and industry accounts for around 15% of GDP. Key industries include automobiles, steel and petrochemicals, computers and aircraft. Additionally, both agriculture and minerals and mining play an important role in Brazil’s economy. Agriculture represents around 6% of GDP and employs 20% of Brazil’s labor force. Further, Brazil has extensive deposits of mineral resources and mining and commodities are significant contributors to economic activity.
When are Brazil GDP Data Released?
The IBGE publishes GDP data on a quarterly and annual basis. The quarterly and annual data are consistently linked. The quarterly GDP readings for Brazil are released 60 days after the end of the reference quarter, i.e., May 30, August 29, November 28 and March 27. The first annual gross domestic product result is released along with the results of the fourth quarter from that year. Additionally, a press conference is held along with the data release. A detailed release calendar is available on the IBGE website.
How are Brazil GDP Figures Computed?
Brazil’s IBGE calculates GDP by applying what is called the “production method”. Which determines the value added of all producers as the difference between the value of goods and services produced (output) and intermediate consumption, adding the taxes on products (such as tobacco, mineral oil and value added tax), and subtracting the subsidies on products. Additionally, the expenditure data is published for household consumption, government consumption, gross fixed capital formation and exports.
How Accurate are Brazil GDP Numbers?
The IBGE acknowledges that the GDP data is preliminary when first released and subject to revisions. The IBGE will publish major changes in methodology and revisions to historical data during the third quarter release of the year. In addition, the national accounts of the previous quarter are revised with every new quarter’s release. The IBGE considers data finalized once it has been adjusted for consistency with annual data. Studies have shown that Brazil’s GDP revisions are relatively large compared to most developed economies.
The IBGE preformed a comprehensive major revision of the national accounts in 2007, when it switched to the reference year 2000. The IBGE estimates follow those of the United Nations System of National Accounts guidelines.
Why are Brazil GDP data important?
GDP growth is generally considered as the most important indicator to measure the economic performance of a country. The rate of change of the real gross domestic product is referred to as economic growth and is the best gauge of an economy’s ups and downs. It is particularly useful for short-term analysis. Next to the headline GDP growth figure, the GDP report is packed with important information that provides an in-depth view on the state of the Brazilian economy. Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and the seventh largest in the world; therefore, Brazilian GDP growth data have a notable impact on the global market and are closely watched.
Where Can I Get forecasts for Brazil’s GDP?
Forecasts for Brazilian GDP growth are published by many sources. The government, banks, consultancies and think tanks closely watch the Brazilian economy and regularly update their projections for Brazilian GDP growth. FocusEconomics collects more than 25 different forecasts on Brazilian GDP and provides an average (Consensus Forecast) from the economists surveyed. Together with the minimum and the maximum projections for Brazilian GDP growth, you receive a comprehensive overview on Brazil’s future GDP growth rates.
Forecasts for Brazil’s GDP growth are included in the monthly LatinFocus Consensus Forecast for Brazil, the monthly LatinFocus Consensus Forecast for Latin America and the monthly Major Economies (G7 and BRIC) reports. All reports are available both on an ad-hoc basis and via an annual subscription (including optional Excel support). Download a free sample or purchase the report directly via our Online Store. The report is available immediately after purchase.
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May 18, 2017
Political chaos is engulfing the Brazilian economy once again, after local newspaper O Globo reported that President Michel Temer was recorded discussing and approving illegal bribes to jailed politician Eduardo Cunha.
May 11, 2017
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) in Brazil plummeted in March, falling at the sharpest pace in over two years.
May 10, 2017
Brazilian consumer prices in April increased 0.14% over the previous month, which was below March’s 0.25% rise.
May 5, 2017
In March, industrial production plunged 1.8% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was worse than February’s revised flat growth (previously reported: +0.1% month-on-month).
May 2, 2017
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector improved notably in April as the Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in above the crucial 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in business conditions in the manufacturing sector.