The New York City skyline in the United States

United States GDP Q3 2022

United States: GDP rebounds in Q3

GDP rebounded in Q3, expanding 2.6% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR), contrasting the 0.6% contraction recorded in the second quarter and coming in slightly above market expectations.

Household spending increased 1.4% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 2.0% expansion, with consumption likely weighed on somewhat by elevated inflation. Government spending rebounded, growing 2.4% in Q3 (Q2: -1.6% SAAR) thanks to stronger defense spending. Fixed investment contracted at a more moderate rate of 4.9% in Q3, following the 5.0% contraction recorded in the prior quarter. The ongoing decline was driven by lower residential investment amid tighter financial conditions, while non-residential investment accelerated.

On the external front, exports of goods and services growth sped up to 14.4% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the third quarter (Q2: +13.8% SAAR). Conversely, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 6.9% in Q3 (Q2: +2.2% SAAR).

On an annual basis, economic growth was steady at 1.8% in Q3.

Economic growth is seen moderating in Q4, and the economy is then seen contracting in Q1 and Q2 2023, as the Fed continues to crank up interest rates. That said, the downturn should be mild; the jobs market is strong, and households are in better financial shape than they were on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.

On the outlook, ING analysts said:

“Rising borrowing costs throughout the economy and the strong dollar are creating a massive headwind. At the same time, the weak external environment is adding to the downside risks to growth, led by Europe’s forthcoming energy-driven recession, and China still being constrained by Covid containment measures. So while the US may have just exited a technical recession, the cold winds are set to get a whole lot chillier this winter and make recession feel much more real in early 2023.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest