Turkey Inflation September 2021


Turkey: Inflation hits over two-year high in September

October 6, 2021

Consumer prices increased 1.25% in September over the previous month, accelerating from August's 1.12% increase. The print reflected a steep rise in the price level for education; furnishing and household equipment; housing; and hotels, cafes and restaurants.

Inflation edged up to 19.6% in September from August’s 19.3%. September's reading marked the highest inflation rate since March 2019. Annual average inflation rose to 16.4% in September (August: 15.8%). Lastly, core inflation ticked up to 17.0% in September, from August’s 16.8%.

Commenting on the inflation outlook in the remainder of this year and next year, analysts at the EIU stated:

“Although a favourable base effect should cause inflation to ease by year-end, persistent inflationary expectations, rising global prices, potential monetary loosening and a weak lira will keep inflation high on average in 2021, at 17.1%--well above the central bank's 5% target. In 2022 supply disruptions will fade but we expect inflationary pressures to remain elevated, at 13.7%, mainly because of continued lira volatility. Aggressive monetary policy easing, high currency volatility, supply-side disruptions and rising global oil prices pose risks to this forecast.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 17.2% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 13.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


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