Tajikistan Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016According to the ADB, the Tajik economy expanded 6.6% in the first half of 2016, which was a mild improvement from the 6.4% recorded in the same period of 2015. The improvement reflected a 20% increase in aluminium exports in H1 2016 compared to H1 2015. However, shortfalls in revenue and increased external debt forced the government to revise the country’s budget, reducing both revenue and spending projections by USD 57 million for this year. The government will cut funds to education, health and social protection, while infrastructure spending is to remain unaltered. In other news, the ABD and Tajikistan have agreed on a new five-year partnership strategy, which aims to widen Tajikistan’s narrow economic base in order to shield the country from external shocks.
Tajikistan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||816||997||1,049||1,038||813|
|GDP (USD bn)||6.4||7.9||8.5||8.6||6.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.4||7.5||7.4||6.7||6.0|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||0.8||1.5||0.3||0.3||0.8|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||35.4||32.4||29.2||28.3||-|
|Money (annual variation of M2 in %)||30.0||22.8||18.6||3.5||12.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||9.2||6.4||3.7||7.2||5.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||12.5||5.8||5.1||6.1||5.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||9.80||6.50||5.50||8.00||8.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||4.76||4.76||4.77||5.28||6.99|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4.61||4.76||4.76||4.93||6.16|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-2.7||-3.1||-1.0||-8.6||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.2||-0.2||-0.1||-0.7||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-1.9||-2.4||-3.0||-7.0||-2.5|
|Exports (USD billion)||1.3||1.4||1.2||1.1||0.9|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.2||3.8||4.1||8.1||3.4|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||4.2||8.0||-14.4||-7.3||-17.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||19.9||18.6||9.1||95.6||-57.4|
|International Reserves (EUR)||0.2||0.2||0.3||0.2||0.1|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||33.4||27.3||25.7||24.3||-|
5 years of Tajikistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.88||0.01 %||Oct 21|
Tajikistan Economic Growth
October 4, 2016Prospects for the economy remain weak: the aluminium supply glut is will persist as a result of increased aluminium production in China. Our panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and they expect it to grow 3.8% in 2017.