Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

The economy gained steam in the second quarter, according to Central Bank data. GDP expanded 8.7% year-on-year in January–June, up from the 7.5% rise recorded in January–March, on the back of soaring exports of precious metals and an acceleration in investment activity and household spending. Moreover, the resumption of air traffic with Russia boosted remittances, which further supported domestic activity. Turning to H2, geopolitical uncertainties and the ongoing pandemic have been weighing on the economic backdrop somewhat. Rising new Covid-19 cases in Q3 may have slightly slowed growth momentum, although the recent acceleration of the vaccination rate bodes well for the economy in Q4. Meanwhile, tensions with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan remain high in Q4, clouding the economic outlook in turn, amid reports of a buildup of troops on both sides of the border.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

GDP growth is seen remaining upbeat next year, after a projected acceleration this year. Continued vaccine deployment should foster domestic activity growth, while rising remittances and foreign investment from key trading partners Russia and China are set to add additional support. Moreover, easing supply disruptions and firmer foreign demand bode well for exports. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 5.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.7% in 2023.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate2.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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