Nigeria Inflation September 2021

Nigeria

Nigeria: Inflation continues downward trend in September

October 15, 2021

Consumer prices rose 1.15% in September, up from August’s 1.02% increase. This marked the strongest monthly increase since March and was driven by a stronger rise in food, and housing, water, electricity and gas prices.

Inflation eased further in the month, coming in at an eight-month low of 16.6% (August: 17.0%). The trend, however, pointed up as annual average inflation rose to 16.8% in September from August’s 16.6%. Lastly, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce, clocked in at 13.7% in September from 13.4% in August.

Analysts at the EIU added:

“Foreign-exchange controls on imported goods, for which domestic supply is inadequate, and conflict in the Middle Belt--Nigeria's breadbasket--will keep inflation structurally high. Inflation, estimated at 17.4% in 2021, will drop to 13.3% in 2022. This is an increase from the previous report, which reflects the pass-through of exchange-rate volatility on the parallel market in late 2021, and an electricity tariff hike, but disinflation is expected as the naira becomes more stable over the year. This will be followed by an uptick in 2023 to 13.8% assuming fuel prices are liberalized.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 16.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, inflation is seen averaging 13.3%.


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Nigeria Inflation September 2021

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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