Japan Trade Balance October 2021


Japan: Exports grow at a milder rate in October

November 17, 2021

Yen-denominated merchandise exports rose 9.4% year-on-year in October, slowing from September’s 13.0% growth. While October’s reading marked the weakest expansion since February, it was still the eighth consecutive month of growth in exports. Meanwhile, imports climbed 26.7% on an annual basis in October, slowing from September’s 38.6% increase and thus marking the lowest result since April 2021.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a flat reading in October (September 2021: JPY 0.6 trillion deficit; October 2020: JPY 0.8 trillion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a JPY 1.2 trillion surplus in October, compared to the JPY 2.1 trillion surplus in September.

Our panelists forecast that exports will increase 3.8% in 2022 and imports will increase 5.0%, bringing the trade balance to a surplus of USD 46.7 billion. In 2023, our panelists expect exports to expand 3.7% and imports to expand 3.9%, pushing the trade surplus to USD 47.1 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Japan Trade Balance Chart

Japan Trade12m October 2021 1

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Finance and FocusEconomics calculations.

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