Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Regional 2024 GDP growth is seen largely stable from 2023’s. Shallow recoveries in Finland and heavyweight Sweden will offset slowdowns in Denmark and Iceland. Purchasing power will recover further, but still-tight monetary policy and above-target inflation will limit the overall improvement. The steepness of real estate market corrections is a factor to watch.
Nordic Economies Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 3.6% in January (December: 3.2%) on higher inflation in Denmark and Sweden. This year, regional inflation will average below 2023’s level on the delayed impact of tight monetary policy stances in 2023 and a high base effect. That said, inflation will still average above central banks’ targets in most countries.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 57,817 | 56,889 | 67,707 | 68,185 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.5 | -2.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.0 | -3.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.4 | -2.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 41.7 | 48.3 | 44.2 | 40.2 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.14 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 2.42 | 4.13 |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 10.57 | 9.71 | 10.30 | 11.65 | 11.73 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.5 | - | - | - | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 473 | 433 | 599 | 727 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 324 | 303 | 373 | 407 | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 11 | 13 | 17 | 16 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -2.6 | 3.1 | 8.9 | - |