Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
Over the last month, our panelists cut their 2025 regional GDP growth forecasts again as U.S. tariffs hurt exports. Our panelists are more optimistic for next year, seeing growth picking up some steam, supported by faster private consumption and investment growth; lower inflation and interest rates will support the improvement.
Nordic Economies Inflation
In September, inflation rose in Denmark, Iceland and Norway, stabilized in Finland and waned in Sweden. Regional inflation will continue to slow from its 2022 peak in 2026, tamed by past monetary policy tightening. 2026 inflation should still surpass central banks’ targets in Iceland and Norway. Stronger-than-expected wage and private consumption growth poses upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2019.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 56,788 | 67,401 | 67,658 | 64,130 | 65,538 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 147 | 163 | 153 | 159 | 163 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 0.4 | 5.7 | 1.0 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.1 | 45.0 | 41.1 | 43.5 | 47.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.7 | 3.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.23 | -0.08 | 2.34 | 4.05 | 3.22 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 0.7 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 170 | 216 | 241 | 219 | 218 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 191 | 229 | 248 | 256 | 262 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 |