Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
The streak of downgrades starting in January continued this month, with our panelists again cutting their 2025 regional GDP growth forecasts. Accordingly, economic growth is now seen below 2024 this year as exports decelerate amid higher global trade frictions. GDP growth will be supported domestically by improving purchasing power and lower interest rates.
Nordic Economies Inflation
Inflation rose in all countries in the region in July, except Iceland. Regional inflation should average below 2024 this year, but is seen topping 2024 levels in Denmark, Finland and Sweden. It is also seen exceeding central banks’ targets in Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Stronger-than-expected private consumption growth is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 0.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 56,788 | 67,401 | 67,658 | 64,130 | 65,538 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 170 | 216 | 241 | 219 | 218 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.2 | 45.0 | 41.0 | 43.5 | 46.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 0.4 | 5.7 | 1.0 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.7 | 3.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.23 | -0.08 | 2.34 | 4.05 | 3.22 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 191 | 229 | 248 | 256 | 262 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 220 | 246 | 249 | 268 | 271 |