The skyline in Sweden

Nordic Economies Economic Forecast

Nordic Economies Economic Outlook

Regional 2024 GDP growth is seen largely stable from 2023’s. Shallow recoveries in Finland and heavyweight Sweden will offset slowdowns in Denmark and Iceland. Purchasing power will recover further, but still-tight monetary policy and above-target inflation will limit the overall improvement. The steepness of real estate market corrections is a factor to watch.

Nordic Economies Inflation

Regional inflation rose to 3.6% in January (December: 3.2%) on higher inflation in Denmark and Sweden. This year, regional inflation will average below 2023’s level on the delayed impact of tight monetary policy stances in 2023 and a high base effect. That said, inflation will still average above central banks’ targets in most countries.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2022.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP per capita (USD) 57,817 56,889 67,707 68,185 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.5 -2.3 5.1 2.8 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.0 -3.6 5.3 2.6 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.3 4.2 4.8 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.4 -2.6 5.8 5.3 -0.3
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.6 6.8 6.6 5.4 5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 41.7 48.3 44.2 40.2 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.7 2.5 7.2 5.9
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 0.14 -0.14 0.00 2.42 4.13
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 10.57 9.71 10.30 11.65 11.73
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 4.5 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 473 433 599 727 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 324 303 373 407 -
International Reserves (USD bn) 11 13 17 16 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 -2.6 3.1 8.9 -

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