Nordic Economies Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the Nordic Economies

October 23, 2019

Economic growth among Nordic countries is seen holding steady next year

Low interest rates, more expansionary fiscal stances and tight labor markets should buttress Nordic growth against international trade tensions and protectionism which will limit global economic growth.

Nordic Economies Financial & Monetary Sector News

Regional inflation was unchanged in September at August’s 1.2%. Going forward, average inflation is expected to remain more or less unchanged next year from this year, with upward price pressure from wage gains counterbalanced by downward price pressure from subdued economic growth.

There was scant news on the monetary policy front over the past month, aside from the Central Bank of Iceland announcing another interest rate cut on the back of weak economic activity. Looking ahead, regional monetary policy is expected to tighten marginally next year, although it is set to remain accommodative to support modest economic growth.

The Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish currencies depreciated against the euro over the past four weeks, as international trade tensions rose. Turning to the end of next year, the Icelandic, Swedish and Norwegian currencies are seen appreciating compared to the end of this year, in part on higher interest rates compared to the ECB and healthy current account surpluses.

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