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Nordic Economies Economic Forecast

Nordic Economies Economic Outlook

The streak of downgrades starting in January continued this month, with our panelists again cutting their 2025 regional GDP growth forecasts. Accordingly, economic growth is now seen below 2024 this year as exports decelerate amid higher global trade frictions. GDP growth will be supported domestically by improving purchasing power and lower interest rates.

Nordic Economies Inflation

Inflation rose in all countries in the region in July, except Iceland. Regional inflation should average below 2024 this year, but is seen topping 2024 levels in Denmark, Finland and Sweden. It is also seen exceeding central banks’ targets in Iceland, Norway and Sweden. Stronger-than-expected private consumption growth is an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2024.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GDP per Capita (USD) 56,788 67,401 67,658 64,131 65,538
Private Consumption (annual variation in %) -3.4 5.1 3.1 -1.4 0.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 6.3 4.9 5.3 5.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.2 45.0 41.0 43.5 46.8
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) -2.1 4.7 1.8 0.1 1.7
Investment (annual variation in %) 0.4 5.7 1.0 -2.3 -0.3
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.0 5.8 3.9 1.7 2.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 3.1 9.0 4.4 3.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.7 2.5 7.2 5.9 2.3
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) -0.23 -0.08 2.34 4.05 3.22
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 191 229 248 256 262
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 170 216 240 219 218
International Reserves (USD bn) 220 246 249 268 271

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