East Asia Economic Outlook
Regional growth will slow this year from last as the post-pandemic boost to activity in China and Hong Kong disappears. However, Korea and Taiwan will grow faster on rebounds in exports and industrial production. Mongolia will stay by far East Asia’s top performer thanks to strong mining investment, higher wages and social spending, and a burgeoning tourism industry.
East Asia Inflation
Consumer prices in East Asia fell 0.4% year on year in January (December: +0.1% yoy). Faster deflation in China and lower inflation in Korea and Taiwan drove the downturn in regional prices. In 2024, price pressures are projected to be muted across the region with the exception of Mongolia, which will see elevated inflation on the back of expansionary fiscal policy.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 11,306 | 11,592 | 13,875 | 13,826 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.7 | -2.9 | 10.9 | 0.7 | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.4 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 2.8 | 9.7 | 3.2 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -5.8 | -3.3 | -4.4 | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 57.6 | 66.6 | 68.4 | 73.3 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.74 | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.57 | 3.45 |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 122 | 112 | 113 | 112 | 117 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,888 | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,993 |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,437 | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,155 |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,556 | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 16.7 | 18.6 | 17.7 | 16.5 | - |