East & South Asia Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for East & South Asia

July 20, 2022

GDP growth to lose steam in 2022

Regional growth will almost halve this year. In China (including Hong Kong), Covid-19 restrictions and the property market downturn will weigh on momentum, spilling over to affecting neighbors in the form of supply disruptions and weaker exports. Beyond China, Covid-19 flare-ups and rising interest rates and inflation could also dampen demand. A prolonged Chinese slowdown is a key risk.

Inflation to average higher compared to 2021

Regional inflation rose from 2.4x% in May to 2.8y% in June on higher inflation price pressures in China, Korea and Taiwan. Inflation will average higher in 2022 than in 2021, on currency weakening, elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions. China’s Covid-19 restrictions, extra government measures to reduce inflation, and the evolution of currencies will be key factors to watch.

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