East Asia Economic Outlook
Panelists have upgraded their forecasts for 2025 GDP growth since May thanks to AI demand spurring tech exports plus a U.S.-China trade truce that now runs to November. However, East Asia’s economy should still slow in the second half of this year and into early 2026 due to higher U.S. tariffs, less scope for export frontloading and gathering headwinds in China.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation is muted in much of East Asia—notably in China, where prices have fallen annually for multiple months in 2025—due largely to the region’s ample manufacturing output and mild private spending. This year, East Asia is projected to record the lowest average inflation globally, with Mongolia an exception due to the delayed effects of loose fiscal policy.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 586 | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,632 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | 81.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |