East Asia Economic Outlook
Panelists expect East Asia’s economy to record slower growth in 2025 vs 2024. Following a robust H1, the regional economy is projected to slow notably in H2 as export front-loading runs its course, though tourism, stimulus measures and strong global AI demand will remain tailwinds. Potential U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs from July are a key downside risk.
East Asia Inflation
Price pressures are low in most of East Asia—especially in China, where prices fell year on year for the fourth straight month in May—due to huge manufacturing capacity and elevated savings rates. In 2025, the region is set to record the lowest average inflation of any region, though Mongolia will buck the trend with elevated inflation driven by robust consumer demand.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,632 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,333 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,254 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | - |