Economic Snapshot for East & South Asia
November 18, 2022
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East Asia
Economic Outlook
Regional growth should gain steam in 2023 due to stronger momentum in China more than offsetting slowdowns in Korea and Taiwan. The recent easing of China’s Covid-19 and property curbs are outlook-positive. That said, risks are still numerous, and include a slow phasing-out of China’s tough Covid-19 stance, recessions in Western countries and China-Taiwan tensions.
Inflation
Regional inflation fell to 2.5% in October from 3.1% in September on lower price pressures in China, Korea and Taiwan. Inflation will be muted this year and next compared to other parts of the world on weak demand and massive domestic manufacturing capacity. Lockdowns in China, the Fed’s tightening cycle and domestic monetary policies are key factors to watch.
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South Asia
Economic Outlook
Growth will weaken further in 2023. On one hand, balance -of-payments pressures and inflation should ease somewhat, with the latter aiding private consumption. However, domestic demand will be hit by interest rate hikes and IMF-mandated austerity. Social unrest and extreme weather are key risks.
Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 10.3% in October from 10.1% in September on higher inflation in Pakistan. In contrast, inflation in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka eased. Average inflation should soften in 2023 on cooling commodity prices, but remain elevated on subsidy cuts and weak currencies. Further FX depreciation and subsidy cuts pose risks.
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Sample Report
5 years of East & South Asia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
East & South Asia Economic News
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Korea: Manufacturing firms’ month-ahead business sentiment falls in December
November 23, 2022
Manufacturing firms’ month-ahead business confidence fell to 69.0 in December from November's 73.0.
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Korea: Consumer confidence eases in November
November 22, 2022
Consumer confidence fell to 86.5 in November from October's 88.8, meaning the index remained below the 100-point threshold, indicating worsening pessimism among consumers.
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Australia: Unemployment rate falls in October
November 17, 2022
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 32,200 in October, following 3,800 jobs shed in September.
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India: Merchandise exports fall sharply in October
November 15, 2022
Merchandise exports shrank 16.6% annually in October, contrasting September’s 4.8% increase.
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India: Inflation plunges to lowest level since July in October
November 14, 2022
Inflation came in at 6.8% in October, down from September’s 7.4%.
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