East Asia Economic Outlook
Panelists forecast East Asia’s economy to lose steam in 2026 due to higher U.S. tariffs, the exhaustion of export frontloading and softer growth in global semiconductor demand. Much will depend on future U.S. tariff pronouncements, with potential tariffs on semiconductors and further levies on China key to East Asia’s economic outlook.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation remains subdued across much of the region—particularly China, where prices have declined for much of 2025. The softness reflects abundant manufacturing capacity and tepid consumer demand. East Asia is expected to post the lowest average inflation rate among all world regions in 2026, though Mongolia will see far higher inflation than the rest of East Asia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2025 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,633 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 586 | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | 80.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |