GDP in United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates - GDP
Growth dips in 2016 as fiscal austerity bites
The UAE’s economy slowed last year according to recently released figures from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA), in line with other countries across the Middle East. Growth dipped from 3.8% in 2015 to 3.0% in 2016, the slowest expansion since 2010, dragged down by fiscal austerity measures and low oil prices.
Private consumption rebounded last year following a sharp contraction in 2015 (2016: +11.7% year-on-year; 2015: -13.1% yoy), likely due in part to subdued inflationary pressures boosting households’ purchasing power. Public spending fell for the second consecutive year, as the government continued to exercise fiscal restraint in the face of low oil prices and a consequent revenue shortfall (2016: -1.2% yoy; 2015: -0.3% yoy). Fixed investment growth was dampened by a fall in public investment, as the government tightened the purse strings with respect to both capital and current spending (2016: +2.3% yoy; 2015. +4.3% yoy).
Previously released external sector figures from the Central Bank show that exports dipped slightly last year, likely dragged down by the strong dirham (2016: -0.6% yoy; 2015: -12.4% yoy). Over the same period, imports rose (2016: +2.9% yoy; 2015: -4.6% yoy), with the external sector’s net contribution to growth deteriorating as a result.
This year is likely to see a further slowdown in growth, as oil production will be curtailed by OPEC production cuts, with the cartel recently announcing a nine-month extension to the deal. Looking further ahead, oil production should rise from 2018 onwards due to investment in oilfields, which coupled with higher prices will give the hydrocarbon sector a boost. At the same time, public infrastructure investment will ramp up considerably ahead of the 2020 World Expo in Dubai, which should give domestic demand a shot in the arm.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 2.3% in 2017, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel sees the economy growing 3.4%.
United Arab Emirates - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.8||3.3||3.8||3.0||1.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United Arab Emirates GDP Chart
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||0.3||0.75 %||Jan 30|
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April 7, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 53.4 in February to 55.7 in March.
United Arab Emirates: PMI slumps in February on falling employment amid steep price competition; production outlook worsens
March 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 56.3 in January to 53.4 in February, which marked its lowest level since October 2016.
United Arab Emirates: Consumer prices tumble sharply in January owing to high base effect from VAT introduction
March 4, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.12% month-on-month in January, improving from the 0.31% decline recorded in December.
February 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in December, its lowest level since October 2016, to a seven-month high of 56.3 in January.
January 23, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.31% in December from the previous month, broadly matching November’s 0.30% decline.