Domestic Demand in Poland
Poland - Domestic Demand
Growth moderates slightly in Q2
Poland’s economy slowed down slightly in Q2, according to a second estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 August. GDP expanded 3.9% in Q2 over the same period in 2016, decelerating slightly from Q1’s 4.0% year-on-year rise. The deceleration in Q2 GDP came on the back of a weaker performance by the external sector, but still represents a solid expansion; the economy has been undergoing a growth spurt in response to a healthy Eurozone, robust domestic demand and a recovery in investment after a slow 2016.
The domestic side of the economy, on the other hand, fared strongly in Q2. Private consumption rose (Q2: +4.9% year-on-year; Q1: +4.7% yoy), underpinned by a tight labor market and lower inflation. Furthermore, government consumption also gathered momentum in Q2, expanding 2.4% in annual terms (Q1: +1.0 % yoy). In addition, gross fixed investment rebounded in Q2 as EU-funded investments ramped back up after declining sharply in 2016 (Q2: +0.8% yoy; Q1: -0.4% yoy). All in all, domestic demand expanded a robust 5.8% in Q2 (Q1: +4.2% yoy).
The external sector did not perform as well in Q2, as exports grew only 2.8% in annual terms compared to a strong 8.3% expansion in Q1. Industrial output, especially for automakers, slowed in June. Imports, on the other hand, decelerated from Q1 to Q2, slightly offsetting weaker export growth (Q2: +6.1% yoy; Q1: +8.7% yoy). The overall net contribution to growth in Q2 was minus 0.9 percentage points (Q1: -0.1 percentage points). A drag on the external sector had been expected due to the appreciation of the zloty and thriving private consumption, which should translate into higher imports.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will grow 3.7% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.4%.
Poland - Domestic Demand Data
|Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)||-0.5||-0.6||4.7||3.3||2.4|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||3.28||-1.03 %||Oct 16|
|Exchange Rate||3.59||-0.08 %||Oct 16|
|Stock Market||65,436||0.18 %||Oct 16|
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October 6, 2017
As largely anticipated by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low of 1.50% at its 3–4 October monetary policy meeting.
October 2, 2017
According to IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.7 in September from 52.5 a month earlier, landing further above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector—where it has been for nearly three years.
September 29, 2017
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on 29 September, consumer prices increased 0.4% in September from a month earlier, contrasting August’s 0.1% decline. Inflation climbed to 2.2% in September, accelerating from August’s 1.8% and closing in on the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus/minus 1.0 percentage point.
September 25, 2017
In September, the manufacturing sector business climate index fell to 6.3 points from 7.4 points a month earlier, according to the Business Tendency Survey released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS-BTS).
September 25, 2017
Retail sales rose 7.6% from the same month a year earlier in August, accelerating from July’s 7.1% increase.