Jamaica GDP (JMD bn)

According to preliminary statistics from the Planning Institute of Jamaica, annual GDP growth eased to 3.4% in Q4 (Q3: +5.9%). The slowdown was driven by the service sector: Transport and hospitality growth decelerated amid a dwindling Covid-19 base effect, while retail sales contracted due to lower remittances in the quarter. That said, the industrial sector saw a stronger expansion in Q4 due to a three-digit growth rate in mining on the reopening of the Jamalco alumina refinery. However, all other subcomponents of the industrial sector decelerated, suggesting that the normalization of output—rather than strong underlying momentum—caused the industrial upturn. In Q1, available data shows a positive picture: Inflation continued to decline in January, boding well for household spending, while external demand is improving, suggesting potentially higher tourist arrivals.