The New York City skyline in the United States

United States GDP

United States GDP

Economic Growth in United States

The United States saw robust GDP growth from 2013 to 2019, driven by strong consumer spending and technological innovation. However, growth was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, leading to a sharp but brief recession. The subsequent recovery in 2021-2022 was rapid, fueled by significant fiscal stimulus and monetary support.

The United States recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 2.3% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth rate was 1.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

United States GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for United States from 2014 to 2023.
Source: BEA.

United States GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 2.5 -2.2 5.8 1.9
GDP (USD bn) 20,657 21,521 21,323 23,594 25,744
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.3 4.2 -0.9 10.7 9.1

GDP grows at softest pace since Q2 2022 in the first quarter

GDP growth lost steam in Q1, falling to 1.6% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading marked the worst result since Q2 2022 and undershot market expectations. Negative net exports and a drag from private inventories dampened the reading. However, underlying economic momentum was strong, with robust private spending and fixed investment outturns. On an annual basis, economic growth ebbed to 3.0% in Q1, from the previous quarter's 3.1% growth.

Household spending growth fell to 2.5% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +3.3% SAAR), but was still robust, thanks to much stronger spending on services. Government consumption growth waned to 1.2% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +4.6% SAAR). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated to 5.3% in Q1 from the 3.5% expansion in the previous quarter, thanks to a boom in residential investment. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 0.9% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +5.1% SAAR). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 7.2% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +2.2% SAAR).

Our Consensus is for GDP to expand at a roughly similar pace to Q1 in Q2, underpinned by solid private spending.

On the Q1 reading, Nomura analysts said: “Headline GDP came in below expectations for Q1 […] However, most of the surprise was driven by volatile components (inventory investment, trade, and government spending). Real private domestic final sales rose 3.1%, slightly above our expectations and in line with the H2 2023 average.” On the near-term outlook, TD Economics’ analysts said: “Consumer resilience is likely to remain a key driver supporting economic growth over the near-term. Job gains remain plentiful and have shown little indication of slowing. This is helping to support aggregate gains in household income and providing a sustained tailwind to consumer spending. […] for now, it looks like spending momentum has carried over into Q2.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects American GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 71 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for American GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our American GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of American GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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