BOK Base Rate in Korea
South Korea's central bank policy rate declined from 2013 to 2020 in order to stimulate growth and inflation. Post-pandemic, there was a gradual shift towards rate normalization, balancing economic recovery with emerging inflationary pressures.
The BOK Base Rate ended 2022 at 3.25%, above the 1.00% end-2021 value and also above the reading of 2.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in the Asia-Pacific region was 3.70% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Korea Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Korea from 2015 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Korea Interest Rate Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOK Base Rate (%, eop) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
3-Month KORIBOR (%, eop) | 1.51 | 0.81 | 1.41 | 4.04 | 3.88 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 1.68 | 1.71 | 2.25 | 3.73 | 3.18 |
Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in July
At its meeting on 11 July, the Central Bank decided to keep the Base Rate unchanged at 3.50%, where it has been since January 2023.
The decision was influenced by the need to further assess the trend of inflation—headline inflation, core inflation and short-term inflation expectations are still above the Central Bank’s 2.0% target—foreign exchange market volatility and the impact of increasing household debt on financial stability before countenancing rate cuts.
The Central Bank indicated a readiness to consider a rate cut at an unspecified time in the future, contingent upon factors such as inflation trends, the foreign exchange market, house prices, and household debt. Most of our panelists expect rate cuts to begin in Q4, with between one and two 25-basis point cuts penciled in by the end of the year.
On the outlook, United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said: “We push back our rate cut call for South Korea to start in Oct rather than Aug, meaning that BOK’s rate lowering would come only after the Federal Reserve’s, should the latter kick off its policy easing in Sep in line with our forecast. We continue to see a total of 50 bps reductions this year, including another 25 bps cut in Nov.” ANZ’s Krystal Tan said: “There was little to suggest that the BoK is in a hurry to cut rates. Financial stability concerns are a growing consideration. Overall, we are sticking with our forecast for the BoK to deliver a rate cut in October.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Korean interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Korean interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Korean interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Korean interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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