Uruguay: Economy contracts at a slower rate in Q3
GDP slid at a milder pace of 0.2% year on year in the third quarter, above the 2.5% contraction tallied in the second quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rebounded, expanding 1.0% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter’s 1.4% fall.
The annual improvement chiefly reflected public spending growth, which accelerated to a five-quarter high of 2.7% year on year from 1.8% in Q2. That said, annual private consumption increased at a slower pace of 3.4% in Q3 compared to a 4.5% expansion in Q2. Moreover, fixed investment contracted 11.3% in Q3 (Q2: -5.0% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q4 2018. Domestic demand likely benefited from lower average inflation in Q3, which fell to the lowest since Q3 2005, preventing a steeper private consumption deceleration, as still-elevated interest rates capped its overall improvement.
On the external front, exports of goods and services plunged at the steepest rate in over two years, contracting 9.2% in the third quarter (Q2: -6.9% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 5.0% in Q3 (Q2: +7.9% yoy).
Our Consensus is for the economy to return to growth year-on-year in Q4, but tally only a moderate increase in 2023 as a whole.