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United States Inflation September 2023

United States: Inflation holds steady in September

Inflation was stable at August’s 3.7% in September, above market expectations of 3.6% and the Fed’s 2% target. In the month, a faster rise in transport prices largely offset lower food inflation.

The trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.1% in September (August: 5.4%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 4.1% in September, from the previous month’s 4.3%.

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.40% from the previous month in September, coming in below August’s 0.63% rise.

On the monetary policy implications, Nomura analysts said: “[The] CPI report raises the possibility of an “insurance rate hike” on the margin. However, we maintain our call that the Fed is done with rate hikes, partly because tightening of financial conditions driven by higher long-term rates renders further hikes unnecessary.”

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