Ukraine: Revised Q2 GDP contraction broadly in line with preliminary result

According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 4.6% in Q2 over the same period last year, which was broadly in line with the previously released preliminary estimate. The contraction was greater than Q1’s 1.3% decrease.

On the domestic side of the economy, investment plummeted 18.5% year-on-year in Q2 (Q1: -18.3% year-on-year). Private consumption contracted 2.3%, which contrasted the 6.8% expansion tallied in Q1. In contrast, public consumption rose 6.9%, rebounding from the previous quarter’s 6.1% fall.

On the external front, exports contracted 7.4% in the second quarter (Q1: -2.3% yoy) and imports dropped 11.0% (Q1: -6.1% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth improved, rising to plus 2.8 percentage points in Q2 from Q1’s plus 2.5 percentage points.

FocusEconomics participants see the economy contracting 6.4% in 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect that the economy will rebound to grow 0.4%.