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Turkey Inflation October 2021

Turkey: Inflation comes in at highest level since January 2019 in October

Consumer prices increased 2.39% in October over the previous month, picking up from September’s 1.25% rise. October’s result was the highest reading since October 2018. The print reflected a significant spike in clothing and footwear, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices.

Inflation ticked up to 19.9% in October, following September’s 19.6%. October’s result marked the highest inflation rate since January 2019. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 17.1% in October (September: 16.4%). Finally, core inflation fell to 16.8% in October, from the previous month’s 17.0%.

Analysts at the EIU commented:

“A favourable base effect will cause inflation to ease by year-end, but persistent inflationary expectations, rising global prices, monetary loosening and a weak lira will keep inflation high on average in 2021 […]. In 2022 supply disruptions will diminish, but we expect inflationary pressures to remain elevated, at 14.1%, mainly because of continued lira volatility and monetary loosening. Aggressive monetary policy easing, high currency volatility, supply-side disruptions and rising global oil prices pose risks to this forecast.”

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