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Thailand GDP Q4 2023

Thailand: Economic growth picks up in Q4

GDP growth improved to 1.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 1.4% in the third quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity declined 0.6% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter’s 0.6% increase. Q4’s reading marked the largest decrease since Q4 2022.

Household spending growth moderated to 7.4% year on year in Q4 compared to a 7.9% expansion in Q3. Government consumption dropped at a slower rate of 3.0% in Q4 (Q3: -5.0% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 0.4% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q2 2022 (Q3: +1.5% yoy). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth picked up to 4.9% year on year in the fourth quarter, which marked the best reading since Q3 2022 (Q3: +1.1% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 4.0% in Q4 (Q3: -9.4% yoy), marking the best reading since Q3 2022.

GDP growth should gain traction this year from last. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies, a further recovery in tourism and improving external demand conditions will spearhead the acceleration. That said, slowing private spending growth will limit momentum. A weaker-than-expected Chinese economy poses a downside risk.

Commenting on the release, UOB’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya stated:

“Based on the actual outturn of Q4 2023 growth confirming a slower growth momentum ahead, we revise our 2024 growth forecast lower to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 3.6%. The substantial downward revision is due to a softer household consumption weighed by tighter financial conditions, a slump in the government expenditure and public investment dragged by the delay in the FY2024 budget process in the first half of the year, amid a moderate rebound

of private investment and merchandise exports”

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