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Sweden Monetary Policy March 2024

Sweden: Riksbank holds fire again in March

At its 26 March meeting, the Riksbank stayed put once again, leaving the policy rate at 4.00%. The hold, which mirrored January’s decision, had been expected by markets.

The Bank’s assessment that price pressures remain elevated motivated the pause, as the Bank aims to stabilize inflation around the 2.0% target. That said, the hold was largely cautious as the Riksbank acknowledged that upside risks to the inflationary outlook have diminished and that inflation expectations are firmly anchored to target.

The Riksbank hinted that the loosening cycle could begin as early as at its next meeting on 7 May or in the following one on 26 June—with the decision to be announced the following day—if “inflation prospects remain favorable”.

Most of our panelists see the first interest rate cut in Q2, and 50–150 basis points worth of cuts have been penciled in for 2024.

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