Lake Bled in Slovenia

Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

After almost flatlining in annual terms in Q4, our panelists expect activity to pick up slightly in Q1. In January–February, significantly stronger wage growth and lower unemployment in comparison with Q4 likely reduced pressure on private consumption. Moreover, industrial production contracted at a slower pace over the same period compared with Q4. That said, retail sales growth slowed and inflation remained elevated in Q1 compared to Q4. In April, the government extended its energy price cap until the end of the year and eased conditions for hiring foreign workers, boding well for activity. That said, political instability is on the rise; the ruling party’s support fell significantly as the public is reportedly dissatisfied with progress on reforms, while farmers’ protests over environmental regulations have brought the capital, Ljubljana, to a standstill on a number of days over recent weeks.

Slovenia Inflation

Harmonized inflation accelerated to 10.4% in March (February: 9.4%) due to higher price pressures for electricity due to the partial elimination of measures to mitigate rising energy costs. Inflation will cool this year as softening demand, a tougher base effect, and energy price caps keep prices in check. Rising commodity prices are an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Slovenia from 2013 to 2022.

Slovenia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
GDP (USD bn) 48 54 54 54 62
GDP per capita (USD) 23,474 26,187 26,105 25,574 29,263
GDP (EUR bn) 43 46 49 47 52
GDP per capita (EUR) 20,819 22,195 23,322 22,434 24,755
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 6.7 5.8 -3.1 11.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.8 4.5 3.5 -4.3 8.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.9 5.0 3.5 -4.7 9.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 3.5 5.3 -7.0 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.4 2.9 1.8 4.1 5.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 10.2 10.2 5.1 -7.9 13.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.1 6.2 4.5 -8.6 14.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 10.7 7.1 4.7 -9.6 17.6
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 7.7 5.1 3.1 -5.2 10.2
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 7.4 4.6 3.4 -8.9 18.9
Wages (ann. var. %) 2.7 3.4 4.3 6.0 6.0
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.7 4.4 4.0 5.4 4.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 5.1 4.5 5.0 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.1 0.7 0.7 -7.7 -4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 74.2 70.3 65.4 79.6 74.5
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 6.6 7.4 7.9 12.1 8.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.7 1.4 1.8 -1.1 4.9
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.9 1.4 2.0 -1.2 5.1
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 1.9 1.7 -0.3 2.0
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.7 6.1
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.33 -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.69 0.96 0.02 -0.23 0.17
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 3 3 3 4 2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.6 3.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 2 1 1 2 1
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 28 31 32 30 35
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 27 30 31 27 34
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 14.0 8.6 3.9 -7.4 19.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 14.5 10.4 3.9 -11.1 26.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 1 1 1 0 1

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