Lake Bled in Slovenia

Slovenia GDP Q1 2021

Slovenia: Economy records best result since Q4 2019 in the first quarter, but remains below pre-pandemic levels

GDP rebounded in the first quarter, growing 1.6% year-on-year and contrasting the 4.5% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1’s reading marked the fastest expansion since Q4 2019. That said, the print was flattered by a favorable base effect and was not enough to restore the economy to its 2019 levels.

The upturn reflected improvements in private consumption, fixed investment and exports. Despite the tight restrictions in place in the quarter, household spending bounced back amid a rather favorable base effect, growing 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 following a 14.5% contraction in Q4. Notably, consumption of durable goods rose, more than offsetting lower consumption of other goods and services. Meanwhile, public spending contracted 1.7% (Q4 2020: +2.8% yoy). Lastly, fixed investment growth accelerated to 7.6% in Q1 from 2.0% in the prior quarter, thanks to a spike in spending on machinery and equipment, with transport equipment investment up by roughly a third.

On the external front, exports of goods and services rebounded in the first quarter, growing 0.8% year-on-year, which marked the best reading since Q4 2019 (Q4 2020: -0.4% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services bounced back, growing 0.5% in Q1 (Q4 2020: -2.0% yoy).

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 1.4% in Q1, rebounding from the 0.6% contraction recorded in Q4 2020.

Looking at Q2, although domestic restrictions were temporarily tightened on 1 April, they have been eased significantly since then, boding well for activity. Indeed, our panelists forecast a marked acceleration in economic momentum in the quarter. Early signs are positive: Retail sales expanded in April, suggesting private consumption might have picked up at the outset of the quarter. In addition, consumer and business sentiment improved in May.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest