Serbia GDP Q2 2016


Serbia: Economy decelerates in Q2

August 31, 2016

In the second quarter, the economy expanded 2.0% over the same quarter last year, according to revised data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) on 31 August. The figure was up from the 1.8% increase reported in the preliminary estimate and marked a deceleration over the 3.8% increase in the first quarter. The slowdown came as a result of a deterioration in the external sector of the economy, while domestic demand was robust in Q2.

Private consumption in the second quarter expanded 1.3%, which was up from the 0.9% increase seen in the previous quarter. Moreover, growth in government consumption accelerated from 3.3% in Q1 to 4.6%, which marked the highest reading since Q2 2012. Conversely, fixed investment expanded 4.9%, which was down from the 8.4% increase observed in the first quarter.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services decelerated slightly from an 11.7% increase in Q1 to a 10.0% rise in Q2. Growth in imports improved notably from a 4.8% in Q1 to 12.3% in Q2. Due to the remarkable acceleration in imports, the net contribution from the external sector deteriorated from plus 2.6 percentage points in Q1 to minus 2.5 percentage points in Q2.

Compared to the previous period, GDP recorded zero growth, down from the 1.9% increase seen in the first quarter.

The National Bank of Serbia expects the economy to expand 1.8% this year and 2.2% next year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to record 1.7% growth in 2016, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees GDP increasing 2.2%.

Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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Serbia GDP Chart

Serbia GDP Q2 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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