Russia: Industrial production contracts again in August
Industrial output dropped 7.2% year-on-year in August (July: -8.0% yoy).
Looking at the details of the release, manufacturing production contracted at a sharper pace in August, while mining and quarrying output decreased at a milder, albeit still pronounced, pace. Meanwhile, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply production fell at a more moderate rate.
On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, industrial production rose at a more restrained pace of 0.5% in August (July: +0.9% mom). Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 2.2%, down from July’s minus 1.4% reading.
Commenting on the result, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, noted:
“We continue to believe in a further recovery of industrial output, and mainly thanks to consumer-driven sectors our -4.5% forecast for 2020 is achievable. However, the performance in the investment- and state-driven manufacturing remains subject to uncertainties in the fiscal policy.”