Peru Trade November 2018


Peru: Trade balance swings to surplus in November, as both exports and imports contract

January 11, 2019

Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 586 million surplus in November, swinging into positive territory from October’s revised USD 74 million deficit (previously reported: USD 155 million deficit) and slightly lower than the USD 646 million surplus recorded in the same month of last year. The reading represents the best result in five months.

Exports declined 4.2% year-on-year in November, following October’s 0.7% fall. November’s drop was due to marked declines in exports of gold, copper, zinc and oil-based fuels. Exports to both China and the U.S. declined markedly, along with sales to South Korea. This was partially offset by significant expansions in the overseas sales of fishing, farm and textile products. Meanwhile, imports dipped 3.2% annually in November, on shrinking purchases of consumption and capital goods, contrasting October’s 11.5% growth.

In the 12 months leading up to November, the trade surplus was USD 6.8 billion, below October’s USD 6.9 billion and the lowest reading in 9 months.

Peru Trade Balance Forecast

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see exports growing 5.1% in 2019 and the trade balance recording a surplus of USD 5.0 billion. For 2020, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 4.8% and a trade surplus of USD 4.5 billion.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Peru Trade Chart

Peru Trade12m November 2018

Note: 12 month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP)

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