Japan: Industrial production rebounds in September
October 30, 2013
In September, industrial production rose 1.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The print contrasted the 0.9% drop recorded in August (previously reported: -0.7% month-on-month), but undershot the 1.8% increase that markets had expected.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the sectors with the greatest contribution to the monthly increase were transport equipment, electronic parts and devices, as well as information and communication electronics equipment. As a result of the improvement seen in September, the government upgraded its basic assessment, stating that Japan's industrial production is, "picking up," instead of the previous statement that it is, "showing signs of picking up at a moderate pace."
On an annual basis, industrial output expanded 5.4% in September, which contrasted the 0.4% decline observed in August and marked the largest rise since May 2012. Annual average growth in industrial production rose from minus 4.8% in August to minus 3.7% in September.
Meanwhile, the Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are becoming more optimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a month-on-month 4.7% increase in October, which is above the 2.5% expansion that was forecast in the previous month's survey. Manufacturers expect a 1.2% drop in November, however.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production declining 0.4% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's projection. In 2014, the panel expects industrial production to rise 4.1%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month's estimate.