Iraq Economic Outlook
February 11, 2020The economy likely lost steam in the fourth quarter. Oil production was down 2.4% year-on-year in the period according to EIA data, due in part to a temporary outage at the Rumaila field and as the country strengthened compliance with OPEC+ production cuts. Moreover, prolonged protests likely dented non-oil activity. This comes after a slowdown in Q3 on the back of weaker expansions in both the oil and non-oil sectors. On the political front, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi was recently appointed as prime minister, several months after former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi resigned over the government’s handling of the protests. Allawi must now form a cabinet and prepare for fresh elections, although a firm date for the vote has yet to be announced. The economic panorama is unlikely to change significantly, and anti-government protests look set to rumble on.
Iraq Economic GrowthGrowth is seen slowing this year on deeper OPEC+ production cuts and political instability. However, some reconstruction progress and a loose fiscal stance should support momentum somewhat. Downside risks to the outlook include Iran-U.S. tensions, which could spill over into conflict on Iraqi soil, a potential spike in social unrest and volatile oil prices. Our panelists forecast growth of 3.4% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% in 2021.
Iraq Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||6,724||5,127||4,752||5,234||5,880|
|GDP (USD bn)||235||181||172||194||224|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.3||1.7||9.6||0.8||-1.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||6.7||22.2||8.0||-||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.6||-12.8||-14.3||-1.6||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||32.9||56.9||66.1||59.6||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.2||1.4||0.5||0.1||0.4|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.00||6.00||4.00||4.00||4.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,143||1,096||1,182||1,185||1,193|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,163||1,148||1,171||1,177||1,192|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||2.6||-6.4||-7.8||2.1||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||6.1||-11.6||-13.4||4.0||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||35.6||11.0||12.2||25.4||48.4|
|Exports (USD billion)||85.4||51.3||41.3||57.6||87.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||49.8||40.3||29.1||32.2||38.9|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-4.9||-39.9||-19.5||39.4||51.6|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-7.4||-19.1||-27.8||10.7||20.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||62.8||50.9||42.0||45.6||60.6|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||24.7||35.3||38.2||35.7||-|
5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,194||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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