Iraq Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018Political uncertainty following the May election has yet to come to an end, although some progress was made in late June when victor Muqtada al-Sadr—who opposes U.S. and Iranian influence in the country—and the incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced an alliance as part of efforts to form a new government. Al-Sadr has called for the formation of a national unity government, and earlier in the month announced an alliance with Hadi al-Amiri’s Iran-linked Fatah Alliance, which had previously voiced opposition to al-Abadi remaining prime minister. However, manual recounting problematic ballots from the election started on 2 July, delaying the formation of a government.
Iraq Economic GrowthSince the defeat of the Islamic State, security conditions have improved, which, together with higher oil prices, should support economic activity this year. The large fiscal deficit and the potentially long process of government formation remain downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.3% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2019.
Iraq Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||7,042||6,621||4,851||4,548||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||235||238||179||172||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||0.7||4.8||11.0||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||5.0||6.7||22.2||8.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.8||-5.4||-12.3||-13.9||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||31.2||32.0||55.1||64.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.9||2.2||1.4||0.4||0.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.00||6.00||6.00||4.00||4.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,165||1,143||1,096||1,182||1,185|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,163||1,163||1,148||1,171||1,177|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||9.6||10.2||-1.1||2.1||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||22.6||24.4||-1.9||3.6||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||30.4||26.8||3.3||7.1||18.8|
|Exports (USD billion)||89.8||85.4||51.3||41.3||57.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||60.1||54.4||48.0||34.3||38.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-4.7||-4.9||-39.9||-19.5||39.4|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.6||-1.3||-18.1||-28.7||13.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||77.7||66.3||53.5||44.9||48.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||25.2||24.4||36.9||39.2||-|
5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Exchange Rate||1,193||0.0 %||Jul 17|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.