Iraq Economic Forecast

Iraq Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Although the economy seems to have gained impetus in Q4 2018 due to higher oil production, OPEC supply cuts have weighed on production since, which could undermine the recovery ahead. According to OPEC data, Iraq pumped 4.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, down almost 0.5 mbpd from December’s level but still above the 4.5 mbpd agreed upon. That being said, a tighter global oil market is pushing up oil prices, which could help replenish Iraq’s coffers somewhat. Meanwhile, France allocated a USD 1.15 billion loan to assist in the reconstruction of the region, with French companies expected to participate in Iraqi efforts to rebuild next quarter.

Iraq Economic Growth

Failure to increase non-oil revenues and secure foreign direct investment, geared mainly towards reconstruction, pose severe short-term threats. Volatile oil prices are risks to the country’s government finances, especially given the new 2019 budget calls on a significant increase in public spending. Our panelists expect growth of 4.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.4% in 2020.

Iraq Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.436.036.937.938.9
GDP per capita (USD)7,0426,6214,8514,548-  
GDP (USD bn)235238179172-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.60.74.811.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.06.722.28.0-  
Unemployment Rate7.97.67.78.08.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.8-5.4-12.3-13.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.232.055.164.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.92.21.40.40.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.006.006.004.004.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,1651,1431,0961,1821,185
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1631,1631,1481,1711,177
Current Account (% of GDP)9.610.2-1.12.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)22.624.4-1.93.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)30.426.83.37.118.8
Exports (USD billion)89.885.451.341.357.6
Imports (USD billion)60.154.448.034.338.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.7-4.9-39.9-19.539.4
Imports (annual variation in %)0.6-1.3-18.1-28.713.3
International Reserves (USD)77.766.353.544.948.9
External Debt (% of GDP)25.224.436.939.2-  

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Iraq Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1,1930.0 %Mar 11

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