Iraq Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020The economy likely contracted markedly in the second quarter. Plummeting oil production, as Iraq increased its compliance with OPEC+ cuts under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Russia, weighed on the energy sector. In addition, lockdown measures and low government revenues will have hit the non-oil sector. Turning to the third quarter, activity likely remains downbeat. EIA data shows oil output down over 20% in July year-on-year, as Iraq continued to compensate for past under-compliance with OPEC+ cuts. Moreover, domestic coronavirus cases have surged, leading to sporadic government-imposed restrictions and hampering the recovery of the non-oil sector. The non-oil sector is likely being further dampened by smoldering social unrest: Recent weeks have seen protests in Kurdistan and the city of Basra.
Iraq Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to shrink notably this year due to a weaker energy sector and domestic Covid-19 containment measures. Risks are skewed to the downside, stemming from further social unrest, Iran-U.S. tensions and a prolonged domestic coronavirus outbreak. Our panelists forecast a contraction of 7.2% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and growth of 4.1% in 2021.
Iraq Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,677||4,606||5,133||5,571||5,636|
|GDP (USD bn)||165||167||191||212||220|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||13.8||-3.8||0.9||4.4|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||22.2||8.0||-||-||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-12.8||-13.9||-1.6||7.9||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||56.9||64.3||58.9||49.3||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.4||0.5||0.1||0.4||-0.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.00||4.00||4.00||4.00||4.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,096||1,182||1,185||1,193||1,194|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,148||1,171||1,177||1,192||1,193|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-1.7||1.3||7.8||16.2||7.1|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.8||2.2||14.9||34.4||15.8|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||11.0||12.2||25.4||47.5||32.2|
|Exports (USD billion)||51.3||41.3||57.6||86.4||81.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||40.3||29.1||32.2||38.9||49.4|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-39.9||-19.6||39.4||50.0||-5.5|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-19.0||-27.9||10.7||20.8||27.1|
|International Reserves (USD)||50.9||42.0||45.6||60.8||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||38.6||39.4||36.4||-||-|
5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,194||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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