Iraq Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019Although the economy seems to have gained impetus in Q4 2018 due to higher oil production, OPEC supply cuts have weighed on production since, which could undermine the recovery ahead. According to OPEC data, Iraq pumped 4.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, down almost 0.5 mbpd from December’s level but still above the 4.5 mbpd agreed upon. That being said, a tighter global oil market is pushing up oil prices, which could help replenish Iraq’s coffers somewhat. Meanwhile, France allocated a USD 1.15 billion loan to assist in the reconstruction of the region, with French companies expected to participate in Iraqi efforts to rebuild next quarter.
Iraq Economic GrowthFailure to increase non-oil revenues and secure foreign direct investment, geared mainly towards reconstruction, pose severe short-term threats. Volatile oil prices are risks to the country’s government finances, especially given the new 2019 budget calls on a significant increase in public spending. Our panelists expect growth of 4.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.4% in 2020.
Iraq Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||7,042||6,621||4,851||4,548||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||235||238||179||172||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||0.7||4.8||11.0||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||5.0||6.7||22.2||8.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.8||-5.4||-12.3||-13.9||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||31.2||32.0||55.1||64.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.9||2.2||1.4||0.4||0.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.00||6.00||6.00||4.00||4.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,165||1,143||1,096||1,182||1,185|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,163||1,163||1,148||1,171||1,177|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||9.6||10.2||-1.1||2.1||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||22.6||24.4||-1.9||3.6||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||30.4||26.8||3.3||7.1||18.8|
|Exports (USD billion)||89.8||85.4||51.3||41.3||57.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||60.1||54.4||48.0||34.3||38.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-4.7||-4.9||-39.9||-19.5||39.4|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.6||-1.3||-18.1||-28.7||13.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||77.7||66.3||53.5||44.9||48.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||25.2||24.4||36.9||39.2||-|
5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,193||0.0 %||Mar 11|
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