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France: Economic growth decelerates in Q4

February 13, 2015

In the last quarter of 2014, the French economy decelerated. In Q4, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter, which came in below the 0.3% rise seen in Q3 and was on par with market expectations. In annual terms, GDP growth decelerated from 0.4% in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4.

The fourth quarter’s deceleration was the result of slower growth in domestic demand. Private consumption grew 0.2% in Q4, below the 0.3% rise in Q3. Government spending increased 0.4% in Q4, below the 0.6% expansion in Q3. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment continued to contract in Q4, although at a slower pace than in Q3 (Q4: -0.5% quarter-on-quarter; Q3: -0.6% qoq).

On a positive note, the external sector improved in the last quarter of 2014 as exports of goods and services expanded a robust 2.3% over the previous quarter (Q3: +0.7% qoq), while imports increased 1.7% (Q3: +1.3% qoq). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from minus 0.2 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.1 percentage points in Q4.

In 2014, the French economy increased 0.4%, which matched the growth rate seen in 2013.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 0.9% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2016, panelists forecast economic growth at 1.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.


Author:, Senior Economist

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France GDP Q4 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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