China GDP


China: Growth stable in Q2

July 15, 2015

GDP in Q2 grew 7.0% over the same period last year. The print matched the result tallied in the previous period and overshot the 6.8% increase that FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists had expected.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics does not provide a breakdown of GDP by expenditure, additional data suggest that growth in domestic demand continued to slow in Q2, while the external sector benefited from a sharp drop in imports. Growth in nominal retail sales was broadly stable in Q2 (Q1: +10.5% year-on-year; Q2: +10.2% yoy). Urban fixed-asset investment, which includes capital and construction investment, expanded an accumulated 11.4% in nominal terms in the first half of the year, which was down from the 13.5% increase recorded in Q1. On the external side of the economy, nominal merchandise trade surplus rose strongly in Q2, as a result of a sizeable drop in imports.

On a production approach, economic activity in Q2 was propelled by stronger growth in services and agriculture, while the all-important industry moderated to an over six-year low in the same period.

On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 1.7% in Q2 (Q1: +1.4% quarter-on-quarter).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists’ projection is in line with the Chinese government’s 2015 growth target and expect GDP to expand 6.9% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel foresees slightly lower economic growth of 6.7%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China GDP Chart

China GDP Q2 2015 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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