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Chile Economic Activity January 2023

Chile: Economic activity bounces back in January

Economic activity increased 0.4% year on year in January (December: -1.0% yoy), beating market forecasts for a fifth consecutive contraction. January’s rebound was largely driven by faster growth in the mining sector. In addition, the non-mining sector dropped at a softer rate.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rose at a quicker rate of 0.5% in January (December: +0.3% mom). Meanwhile, annual average economic activity growth fell to 2.1% in January (December: +2.7%), pointing to a worsening trend.

On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:

“Economic activity has proved to be more resilient than expected […] which should keep the central bank conservative in its calibration of monetary policy. Moreover, activity in both the commerce and services sectors in Jan extended the good momentum from 4Q22, pointing to some resilience of private consumption. Going forward, high inflation, a very restrictive monetary stance, tighter global financial conditions, and policy uncertainty continue to be headwinds for activity. Still […] we believe households still have significant liquidity at hand and see potential upside from the impact China’s reopening.”s

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