Brazil Retail April 2020

Brazil

Brazil: Retail sales contract at sharpest pace on record in April

June 16, 2020

Retail sales dropped 16.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April, which was a deterioration from March's 2.1% decrease. April's figure marked the worst reading on record and the decline was steeper than the 12.0% fall expected by market analysts.

April's decline largely reflected the impact of social distancing measures to contain the spread of coronavirus and came on the back of a sharp contraction in supermarkets, food, drinks and tobacco sales, which contrasted a modest expansion in March. Moreover, sales of textiles, clothing and footwear; other articles for household and personal use; and fuels and lubricants all fell more quickly in April. Meanwhile, furniture and appliances sales declined at a softer rate than in March.

On an annual basis, retail sales plummeted 16.8% in April, which was notably below March’s 1.1% fall. The print marked the worst result on record. Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at 0.7%, down from March's 2.2% reading.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to decline 7.6% in 2020, which is down 4.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees retail sales growing 3.7%.


Author:, Economist

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Brazil Retail April 20 20

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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