Beautiful building in belarus

Belarus GDP Q4 2019

Belarus: Growth falls to three-year low in 2019

A second GDP estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat) confirmed that growth picked up mildly in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4: +1.6% year-on-year; Q3: +1.4% yoy). That said, full-year growth fell to a three-year low (2019: +1.2% yoy; 2018: +3.1% yoy), as a subdued external environment battered the economy over the course of the year.

The fourth-quarter pick-up was spearheaded by sturdier fixed investment growth, which jumped to a near two-year high at the end of the year (Q4: +11.7%; Q3: +6.1% yoy). However, household consumption growth fell to an over two-year low in the same quarter (Q4: +3.2%; Q3: +4.0% yoy), thus weighing on the overall result. Meanwhile, government spending growth was largely stable in the final quarter of last year (Q4: +0.5%; Q3: +0.4% yoy).

On the external front, metrics were somewhat more downbeat. Exports lost traction after rebounding in the third quarter (Q4: +2.7%; Q3: +3.5% yoy) as a frail global economy and still-sour trade relations with Russia weighed on external demand. Imports, meanwhile, accelerated in the same period (Q4: +10.2%; Q3: +5.2% yoy), thus further curbing the overall expansion.

Looking forward, the outlook appears increasingly gloomy as the economy is likely to tip into recession this year due to the fast-spreading global Covid-19 pandemic. Although Belarus has thus far taken an unorthodox approach by refusing to implement strict measures against the pandemic, the global fallout from Covid-19 is likely to begin to severely hamper both domestic activity and external demand in the coming months. A worse-than-expected coronavirus outbreak and uncertainty over economic and political relations with Russia are key downside risks to the outlook.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest