Australia Economic Outlook
September 17, 2019Growth was resilient in Q2, as the external sector’s improved performance offset weakening domestic demand. Strong LNG exports were behind robust external metrics, and led to the first current account surplus since 1975. That said, a protracted downturn in the real estate market and a challenging global backdrop hindered investment. Data for Q3 points to a pick-up in activity. Although consumer confidence was downbeat in the quarter and retail sales dipped at the outset of Q3, job growth was strong in July. Moreover, household spending should be spurred by expansionary fiscal measures and more favorable lending conditions following the Central Bank’s recent expansionary moves, which are also fueling a recovery in mortgage approvals and real estate prices. That said, business sentiment remains frail amid resurging trade tensions, which nonetheless haven’t yet crept into export data, which remained quite strong in July.
Australia Economic GrowthGrowth should weaken this year on falling real estate investment and softening consumer spending. However, it’s seen accelerating in 2020, thanks to rising mining and housing investment, and more accommodative monetary policy. That said, uncertainty surrounding the global—and particularly China’s—growth outlook and trade tensions could discourage investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.0% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Australia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.93||1.47 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||0.68||0.05 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||6,656||0.08 %||Sep 04|
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Australia Economic News
October 11, 2019
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) dropped to minus 0.3 points in September, from plus 1.1 points in August.
October 11, 2019
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index dropped to 92.8 in October, from 98.2 in September, marking the worst result since July 2015.
October 4, 2019
Nominal retail sales in August rose a healthy 0.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following July’s flat reading.
October 1, 2019
At its 1 October monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed the cash rate from 1.00% to 0.75%, marking an all-time low.
September 19, 2019
Seasonally-adjusted employment rose by 34,700 in August, following a revised 36,400 job addition in July (previously reported: +41,100).