Australia Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018The economy remained in good shape in Q2, after accelerating in Q1 on buoyant commodity exports and business investment. Exports continued to perform well in April and May, benefiting from robust demand from China, Japan and South Korea. Moreover, consumer spending seems to have regained some steam in Q2: Retail sales expanded solidly in April and May, supported by healthy job creation and upbeat consumer confidence. However, the outlook for households remains clouded by elevated indebtedness levels and falling home prices; real estate prices continued to dip in June. As housing accounts for over 50% of household assets, a protracted decline in prices could weigh on private consumption. Some support to spending will, however, be provided by the income tax cuts approved by the Senate in mid-June, in a clear victory for the ruling Liberal-National coalition.
Australia Economic GrowthThis year, the economy is set to surpass 2017’s growth rate. A positive global environment will support resource exports, while favorable business conditions and supportive monetary policy will buoy non-mining business investment. Household spending should also increase at a solid pace, supported by moderate inflation and solid job creation; however, subdued wage growth, high debt levels and falling house prices will limit the extent of its growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2019.
Australia Economy Data
5 years of Australia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.66||1.47 %||Jul 17|
|Exchange Rate||0.74||0.05 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||6,288||0.08 %||Jul 17|
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Australia Economic News
July 19, 2018
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 50,900 in June compared to the prior month, following the revised 13,400 jobs created in May (previously reported: +12,000 jobs) and easily overshooting analysts’ expectations of much softer job growth.
July 11, 2018
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment jumped from 102.1 in June to 106.1 in July, the highest reading since November 2013 and further above the 100 mark that separates optimism from pessimism among consumers, where it has now been for eight consecutive months.
July 10, 2018
The business confidence index produced by the National Australia Bank (NAB) decreased to 6 points in June from 7 points in May.
July 4, 2018
Nominal retail sales growth in May came in at 0.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, marginally below April’s revised 0.5% expansion (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month seasonally-adjusted) and coming above market expectations of a more moderate 0.3% rise.
July 3, 2018
At its 3 July monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at its all-time low of 1.50%, where it has been since August 2016.