Australia Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020
The economy seems to have entered a sharp recession in the second quarter, hit by coronavirus fallout, after having already likely weakened in the first quarter amid falling sentiment. Consumer and business confidence fell to abysmal levels in April-May and April, respectively, and coupled with cooling house price growth, a collapse in retail sales and the sharpest plunge in jobs on record in April revealed trouble for the economy. Meanwhile, on 22 May Fitch Ratings cut the outlook on the country's AAA rating from stable to negative, due to the government's large fiscal response to the crisis. On a more positive note, in mid-May the country sold AUD 19 billion (over USD 12 billion) of government bonds, hinting at sustained debt appetite and that the government will be able to finance its bulky stimulus plan.Australia Economic Growth
The economy is poised to be hammered by the health crisis and associated lockdown this year, as both the external channel and domestic activity are hit. That said, measures taken by the government and the Central Bank should help cushion the downturn somewhat. A faster-than-expected recovery in China poses upside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 4.1% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 4.1%.Australia Economy Data
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Australia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.37 | 1.47 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 0.70 | 0.05 % | Dec 31 |
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Australia Economic News
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Australia: RBA keeps rates at all-time low in June; maintains quantitative easing measures
June 2, 2020
At its monetary policy meeting on 2 June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at an all-time low of 0.25%.
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Australia: Retail sales collapse in April amid lockdown
May 21, 2020
Preliminary data shows nominal retail sales in April nosedived at the fastest pace on record amid lockdown.
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Australia: Shutdowns lead to sharpest plunge in jobs on record in April
May 14, 2020
Seasonally-adjusted employment nosedived by 594,300 in April, following a revised 700 job addition in March (previously reported: +5,900).
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Australia: Successful containment strategy props up consumer sentiment in May
May 14, 2020
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index jumped to 88.1 in May from 75.6 in April, consequently recovering from the index’s worst reading since February 1991—logged amid the deep recessions of the early 1990s.
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Australia: Business confidence recovers somewhat but remains deeply negative in April
May 12, 2020
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) rose to minus 45.7 points in April, from record-low minus 65.4 points in March.
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