Australia Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019Following a weak H2 2018, available data suggests growth picked up in Q1 2019. Continued job gains, tightening labor market conditions and an unexpected surge in retail sales in February over the previous month point to surprising resilience in household spending, although consumer sentiment weakened in Q1 on sluggish wage growth and high debts. Moreover, the external sector continued to fire on all cylinders: February saw the second-largest trade surplus on record, thanks to buoyant commodity exports. In addition, building approvals rebounded in January and surged in February, suggesting house prices may have bottomed out. In politics, Australians prepare to head to the polls in May to elect a new parliament. The opposition Labor Party is currently leading the polls by a narrow margin; tax cuts included in the recently unveiled 2019 Federal Budget could persuade voters to change their minds, however.
Australia Economic GrowthGDP growth will decelerate this year as declining residential construction limits fixed investment, while soft wage hikes and a hefty debt stock restrain private consumption. However, sturdy LNG exports will spur growth, while a strong labor market coupled with a possible turnaround in the housing market pose upside risks. Potential weakness in China’s economy is the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.3% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
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|Bond Yield||1.95||1.47 %||Apr 18|
|Stock Market||6,350||0.08 %||Apr 18|
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Australia Economic News
April 24, 2019
In the first quarter of 2019, consumer prices remained unchanged over the previous quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
April 18, 2019
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 25,700 in March from the previous month, following the revised 10,700 jobs added in February (previously reported: +4,600 jobs) and overshooting analysts’ expectations of a gain of 12,000.
Australia: Tax cuts and higher spending promised in early surplus budget as Labor party narrowly leads the polls
April 15, 2019
On 18 May, Australia will hold Federal elections after Prime Minister Scott Morrison, of the ruling center-right Liberal–National Coalition (Coalition), triggered the vote on 11 April.
April 11, 2019
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) fell to minus 0.4 points in March from plus 1.8 points in February.
April 10, 2019
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose to 100.7 in April from 99.8 in March, which had marked the worst reading in one year and a half.