Australia Economic Outlook
January 23, 2018The economy looks to have been in solid shape heading into the new year. Retail sales perked up considerably in the first two months of Q4 after a soggy Q3, while employment growth was elevated in December. The robust labor market is likely fueling consumer confidence, which hit a multi-year high in January. On the downside, the residential property market has softened—particularly in Sydney—following the introduction of macroprudential measures, while wage growth remains fairly limp. This comes after a third quarter economic performance which saw healthy fixed investment, partially offset by sluggish private consumption growth. In December, the government presented its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. It now expects a smaller budget deficit in 2017¬–2018 than previously anticipated, thanks to improved tax collection and firms’ higher profitability. The government also judged that it was still on track to meet its target of returning the budget to surplus by 2020–2021.
Australia Economic GrowthEconomic growth should pick up this year, boosted by loose monetary policy, a rebalancing towards non-mining sectors and stronger LNG exports as new projects come onstream. Slow wage growth and high levels of household debt will, however, continue to weigh on growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2019.
Australia Economy Data
5 years of Australia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.85||1.47 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||0.79||0.05 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||5,940||0.08 %||Feb 14|
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Australia Economic News
February 15, 2018
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 16,000 jobs in January compared to the prior month, down from the previous month’s revised increase of 33,500 (previously reported: +34,700) but still overshooting market analysts’ expectations for a 15,000 gain.
February 14, 2018
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased from 105.1 in January to 102.7 in February.
February 13, 2018
The business confidence index produced by the National Australia Bank (NAB) climbed to 12 points in January, the highest reading since April 2017, from December’s revised 10 points (previously reported: +11 points).
February 6, 2018
At its 6 February monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at its all-time low of 1.50%, where it has been since August 2016.
February 6, 2018
Nominal retail sales in December dipped 0.5% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting November’s revised 1.3% uptick (previously reported: +1.2% month-on-month) and undershooting analysts’ expectations of a 0.2% dip.