Australia Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
Available data suggests the economy regained some steam in the fourth quarter of last year, following a disappointing third quarter in which falling house prices and anemic wage growth restrained consumer spending. In October-November, exports jumped on soaring commodity shipments, benefiting especially from liquified natural gas capacity coming online, while business confidence remained in expansionary territory. Low unemployment levels, solid job creation and strengthening retail sales in the same period point to some recovery in household spending, as does rising consumer confidence throughout Q4. However, November’s retail sales were boosted by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, which could result in weaker sales in December. Tumbling house prices in Q4 could also have limited the recovery in spending, while a dive in consumer confidence in January bodes ill for private consumption at the beginning of the year.Australia Economic Growth
Growth should moderate in 2019, as sluggish wage growth, high household debts and continued property market correction weigh on private consumption, while falling construction activity and mining investment constrain the expansion in fixed investment. However, growth will remain healthy nonetheless, underpinned by rising LNG shipments buttressing the external sector. That said, the volatility of commodity prices and a stronger-than-expected deceleration in growth in China represent clear downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.Australia Economy Data
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Australia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.15 | 1.47 % | Feb 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.05 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 6,140 | 0.08 % | Feb 14 |
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Australia Economic News
Australia: Consumer sentiment rebounds in February
February 13, 2019
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose from 99.6 in January to 103.8 in February.
Australia: Business confidence gains ground at the start of the year
February 13, 2019
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) rose to 3.6 points in January from a revised almost three-year low of 2.7 points in December (previously reported: 2.8 points).
Australia: Weak Christmas shopping prompts the sharpest contraction in retail sales in a year
February 5, 2019
Nominal retail sales in December contracted 0.4% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following November’s revised 0.5% expansion (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month).
Australia: RBA stands pat in February
February 5, 2019
At its 5 February monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at an all-time low of 1.50%, where it has been for over two years.
Australia: Inflation ticks down in Q4
January 31, 2019
In the fourth quarter of 2018, consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
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