Australia Economic Forecast

Australia Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Growth likely lost further traction in the second quarter, after frail domestic demand weighed on the economy in the first quarter. Weak private consumption dynamics seemingly carried over into the second quarter, reflected by retail sales decelerating to an over nine-year low amid an uptick in the unemployment rate and softening housing market. Furthermore, survey-based data pointed to downbeat investment activity amid faltering business conditions in Q2. On a more positive note, the external sector remained resilient to global trade woes in the quarter, with booming commodity exports underpinning double-digit merchandise exports growth. Turning to the third quarter, despite employment gains, consumer confidence plunged to a near two-year low in July and remained subdued in August, while business sentiment remained frail in July.

Australia Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing pace this year due to fixed investment slipping into contraction and as consumer demand suffers from high household debt, weak wage growth and sliding house prices. That said, monetary policy easing and higher fiscal spending should boost growth in H2, softening the overall slowdown this year. A deteriorating global economy and trade woes are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Australia Economy Data

Population (million)23.323.624.024.424.8
GDP per capita (USD)65,17361,61851,48652,02355,953
GDP (USD bn)1,5181,4571,2351,2691,386
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.7-1.9-3.6-2.33.3
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-2.0-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-3.0-2.3-2.4-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.734.137.840.540.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.76.310.96.55.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.502.001.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)14.80.7-
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.890.820.730.720.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.970.900.750.740.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-3.2-4.7-3.3-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-48.5-46.8-58.7-41.6-35.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)20.311.9-

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Australia Facts

Bond Yield0.931.47 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate0.680.05 %Sep 04
Stock Market6,6560.08 %Sep 04

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