Australia Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economic recovery was seemingly limited in Q3, following Q2’s record GDP contraction. On the production side, business confidence—despite improving from Q2—remained entrenched in pessimistic territory. This, coupled with a sizable contraction in merchandise exports, points to still-weak private sector activity. Meanwhile, elevated uncertainty and the lockdown in Victoria seemed to weigh on consumer confidence and constrain spending in Q3: Retail sales contracted month-on-month in both August and September. Moreover, the labor market shed jobs at the tail end of the quarter, likely further dragging on private consumption. Moving to Q4, the lifting of lockdown measures in Melbourne in late October bodes well for the recovery. Furthermore, the adoption of an expansionary budget for FY 2021 boosted consumer and business confidence at the beginning of the quarter and should support activity ahead.
Australia Economic GrowthThe economy is projected to return to growth in 2021, following this year’s pronounced contraction. A recovery in household spending and fixed investment, supportive fiscal and monetary policy measures, and the gradual reopening of the global economy should fuel the rebound. However, potential further restrictions at home and abroad pose a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the economy is seen expanding 3.3%.
Australia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||1.37||1.47 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||0.70||0.05 %||Dec 31|
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Australia Economic News
July 15, 2021
Seasonally-adjusted employment rose by 29,100 in June, following 115,200 jobs added in May.
July 14, 2021
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose to 108.8 in July from 107.2 in June.
July 14, 2021
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) plunged to 10.7 points in June from 20.0 points in May, marking a six-month low reading.
July 6, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 6 July, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at the all-time low of 0.10%.
July 5, 2021
Nominal retail sales grew 0.4% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in May (April: +1.1% s.a.