Australia Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018The economy hit the brakes in the third quarter as falling house prices, tightening financing conditions and sluggish wage growth squeezed consumer spending. Nevertheless, according to available indicators, growth should regain some pace in Q4 given that retail sales accelerated, the labor market continued to add jobs in October, consumer confidence improved throughout the quarter, and given the sharp drop in oil prices since early October. Despite the weak showing in Q3, the IMF acknowledged in mid-November that the economy is successfully completing a rebalancing process which follows the end of the commodity price and investment boom, and praised the government’s responsible fiscal strategy. However, the Fund also highlighted household debt as a source of systemic risk and accordingly suggested that the cabinet further strengthens the financial sector’s regulatory framework.
Australia Economic GrowthSolid growth is expected in 2019. A further tightening in the labor market should translate into faster wage growth. This, coupled with moderate inflationary pressures, ought to stoke consumer spending. Moreover, robust demand for commodities will support the external sector while fixed investment is expected to expand, albeit at an modest pace, buttressed by rising non-mining business investment and public infrastructure spending. Uncertainty ahead of May’s election could unsettle investors, however, while softer growth in China and a possible reignition in global trade tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Australia Economy Data
5 years of Australia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.45||1.47 %||Dec 12|
|Exchange Rate||0.72||0.05 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||5,727||0.08 %||Dec 12|
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Australia Economic News
December 12, 2018
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index inched up from 104.3 in November to 104.4 in December.
December 11, 2018
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) declined to 3.2 points in November from October’s revised 4.5 points (previously reported: 4.2 points).
December 10, 2018
Nominal retail sales growth in October came in at 0.3% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following September’s revised 0.1% expansion (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month).
December 5, 2018
Australia’s economy slowed considerably in the third quarter, dragged down by a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on 5 December.
December 4, 2018
At its 4 December monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) again left the cash rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.50% where it has been for over two years.