Australia Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018Australia underwent a period of political turbulence at the end of August, which resulted in Scott Morrison, the former treasurer, replacing Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister. The substitution was the outcome of a leadership vote held within the governing Liberal Party, triggered by the conservative wing of the party. Given the ideological stance of the new prime minister, the replacement is unlikely to lead to a significant shift in economic policy until the general election, which is to be held before 18 May 2019. Meanwhile, economic activity likely remained robust in the third quarter following a stronger-than-expected second quarter, in which GDP growth was fueled by surprisingly strong household consumption and rising government current expenditure. August saw a jump in new jobs which, together with solid consumer confidence throughout the quarter, points to healthy private consumption in Q3. Moreover, positive business conditions suggest business investment could have bounced back in the third quarter after a dim Q2. That said, the recent increase in mortgage rates could weigh on construction activity.
Australia Economic GrowthGrowth should moderate next year but nonetheless remain robust. Sustained global demand for coal, iron ore and liquified natural gas will boost exports, while still accommodative monetary conditions and a supportive business environment will underpin investment. That said, the main downside risks stem from a possible rise in protectionism and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of next year’s elections. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 3.0% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Australia Economy Data
5 years of Australia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.73||1.47 %||Oct 11|
|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.05 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||6,007||0.08 %||Oct 12|
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Australia Economic News
October 10, 2018
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose from 100.5 in September to 101.5 in October.
October 9, 2018
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) rose to 6.2 points in September from 5.2 points in August.
October 5, 2018
Nominal retail sales growth in August came in at 0.3% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, following July’s flat reading.
October 2, 2018
At its 2 October monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.50% where it has been for over two years.
September 13, 2018
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 44,000 in August compared to the previous month, following the revised 4,300 jobs shed in July (previously reported: -3,900 jobs) and easily overshooting analysts’ expectations for a gain of 15,000.