Angola Commodities February 2023

Angola: Cabinda prices rise in February

The average price for Cabinda oil rose to USD 83.5 per barrel (pb) in February from January’s 81.2 pb. This marked a 2.9% increase month on month. Meanwhile, prices were down 15.7% year on year.

Oil prices extended gains in February, buoyed by a more optimistic demand outlook brought on by China’s reopening and economic resilience in the U.S. and the EU.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output declined to 1.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, down from January’s 1.13 mbpd. Maintenance work at offshore oil field Dalia weighed on crude output. Production among other OPEC+ members trended upwards. Output increased in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and decreased in Kuwait and the UAE.

Global crude prices are seen increasing this year but remaining below the highs seen at the outset of the war in Ukraine. Stronger Chinese demand following the reopening of the country will likely offset the negative impact of a global economic slowdown on oil demand. Moreover, OPEC+ quotas and sanctions on Russian oil will exert upward pressure on prices. Key factors to watch are the health of the global economy, the evolution of OPEC+ cuts and sanctions on Russia, and the output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production close to last year’s levels—below its historical average.

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