Angola Commodities October 2022

Angola: Cabinda prices increase slightly in October

Following three months of consecutive declines, the average price for Cabinda oil rose to USD 95.0 per barrel (pb) in October, up from Septembers USD 92.5 pb. This marked a 2.7% increase month on month. Meanwhile, prices were up 13.7% year on year.

Oil prices picked up slightly during the previous month amid deteriorating supply prospects. In the coming months, oil supply is seen stagnating following the implementation of OPEC+ cuts in November and the EUs ban on Russian oil in December. Meanwhile, weak economic performances in most economies likely dented demand somewhat.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output rose to 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September. Production among other OPEC+ members trended down in general. Output declined in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Venezuela, while it remained stable in Iran and increased in Iraq.

Global oil prices are seen remaining around their current levels in Q4 2022, before easing slightly in 2023. The global economic slowdown will take a toll on oil demand. That said, OPEC+ cuts and EU sanctions on Russian oil will constrain the oil supply ahead. Key factors to watch are the evolution of OPEC+ quotas and sanctions on Russia, as well as the output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production in 2023 close to 2022 levels—well below its historical average. Low output will prevent the country from fully capitalizing on still-elevated oil prices.

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