No Sign of Recovery: Evolution of Brazil's 2015 Growth Forecasts
Brazil’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and poor economic data. In January, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expected that the economy would grow in 2015, forecasting a 0.5% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of less weak economic data emerging from the country and relative optimism that things would improve in 2015.
Over the next couple months, panelists revised their forecasts down as worse data began emerging from Latin America’s largest economy and President Dilma Rousseff came under increasing pressure in Congress over the Petrobras scandal. Moreover, the country was experiencing a severe drought affecting agricultural production and low commodity prices were weighing on export revenues. In addition, Brazil’s economy returned to contraction in the first quarter of 2015, after two consecutive quarters of growth, and freshly-passed austerity measures were expected to dampen private consumption throughout the year. As a result, by June, the FocusEconomics panel had revised down drastically their forecasts and saw a 1.2% contraction for 2015.
The rapid decline continued over the summer months and by September, the FocusEconomics panel saw Brazil’s economy plummeting 2.4% for 2015. Austerity measures, high inflation and depressed confidence had combined to cause panelists to see the economy recording its largest contraction since 1990. Moreover, for the first time in its modern history, the government had presented a budget with a primary deficit to Congress on 31 August, highlighting the country’s shaky financial situation.
For 2016, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics see the economy remaining in contraction territory and falling 0.3%. Yet the country’s circumstances are deteriorating so rapidly, the forecast could be revised down even further in the coming months.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.
Date: September 30, 2015
TagsGreece Political Risk Banking Sector United States Eurozone Canadian Economy Major Economies interview Mexico India European Union TPS Russia France Consensus Forecast Copper scotiabank Nordic Economies Healthcare Venezuela Oil Infographic Costa Rica; GDP; Budget Sub-Saharan Africa United Kingdom Turkey G7 Brazil Tunisia IMF Germany Bitcoin Precious Metals Commodities Nigeria Company News Exports Colombia Budget deficit Eastern Europe GDP chile Gold Exchange Rate Asean Australia TPP Energy Commodities Commodities Latin America Forex Economic Debt Resource Curse Italy China oil prices Portugal Agricultural Commodities Asia economic growth Palladium Investment Unemployment rate precious metals Economic Crisis Base Metals Housing Market Spain public debt USA Vietnam MENA Euro Area South Africa OPEC Cryptocurrency Canada Brexit Inflation Economists Argentina Japan Emerging Markets Draghi Cannabis Base Metals Commodities Ukraine Africa Lagarde Central America Economic Growth (GDP) Asian Financial Crisis CIS Countries Iran Trade Israel election UK
The oil market has been on a rollercoaster ride since the onset of the pandemic, and oil exporters’ fortunes have f… https://t.co/RjgKVhLdwM
2 days ago
Following two global crises in quick succession, public debt-to-GDP ratios in many countries are now at multi-decad… https://t.co/WYmjrbycxF
4 days ago
Base metals posted the weakest increase in prices since April 2020 in June, following China's announcement that it… https://t.co/NW1R30219S
5 days ago
After years of chronic downturn, the Venezuelan economy appears set to shrink at a significantly softer rate this y… https://t.co/3rUhH4VTqO
1 week ago
Unemployment in Central America and the Caribbean soared last year as Covid-19 restrictions bit hard and vital tour… https://t.co/sTX41IBUG1
1 week ago