No Sign of Recovery: Evolution of Brazil's 2015 Growth Forecasts
Brazil’s growth forecast for 2015 has followed an uninterrupted downward trend this year, dragged down by political turmoil and poor economic data. In January, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expected that the economy would grow in 2015, forecasting a 0.5% expansion. This forecast was largely on the back of less weak economic data emerging from the country and relative optimism that things would improve in 2015.
Over the next couple months, panelists revised their forecasts down as worse data began emerging from Latin America’s largest economy and President Dilma Rousseff came under increasing pressure in Congress over the Petrobras scandal. Moreover, the country was experiencing a severe drought affecting agricultural production and low commodity prices were weighing on export revenues. In addition, Brazil’s economy returned to contraction in the first quarter of 2015, after two consecutive quarters of growth, and freshly-passed austerity measures were expected to dampen private consumption throughout the year. As a result, by June, the FocusEconomics panel had revised down drastically their forecasts and saw a 1.2% contraction for 2015.
The rapid decline continued over the summer months and by September, the FocusEconomics panel saw Brazil’s economy plummeting 2.4% for 2015. Austerity measures, high inflation and depressed confidence had combined to cause panelists to see the economy recording its largest contraction since 1990. Moreover, for the first time in its modern history, the government had presented a budget with a primary deficit to Congress on 31 August, highlighting the country’s shaky financial situation.
For 2016, analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics see the economy remaining in contraction territory and falling 0.3%. Yet the country’s circumstances are deteriorating so rapidly, the forecast could be revised down even further in the coming months.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of FocusEconomics S.L.U. Views, forecasts or estimates are as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, other internet websites. FocusEconomics S.L.U. takes no responsibility for the contents of third party internet websites.
Date: September 30, 2015
TagsLatin America Brazil Major Economies election TPP G7 Russia Venezuela Asian Financial Crisis Resource Curse Fed Asia Portugal MENA France Nordic Economies oil prices Inflation Israel Vietnam United Kingdom Central America Budget deficit Turkey Cannabis Base Metals Commodities Housing Market Africa GDP Economic Growth (GDP) Trade Gold digitalcurrencies Asean USA Argentina OPEC Base Metals South Africa chile Eastern Europe Iran Italy CIS Countries economic growth Japan UK Spain TPI Sub-Saharan Africa Australia TPS IMF Oil Economic Outlook Government Bond Emerging Markets centralbanks Infographic Palladium Agricultural Commodities Nigeria Lagarde Forex scotiabank interview Exchange Rate Brexit Greece United States Company News Germany Banking Sector Commodities Canadian Economy Costa Rica; GDP; Budget Economic Crisis European Union Euro Area Healthcare China Eurozone Precious Metals Commodities Mexico Bitcoin precious metals public debt Energy Commodities Tunisia Cryptocurrency Exports Economists Consensus Forecast Colombia Investment Copper Economic Debt ECB Ukraine Draghi India Unemployment rate Canada Political Risk Interest rate
Elevated commodity prices, supply constraints and tight labor markets have spurred global inflation to its current… https://t.co/Bbhrm8gUpJ
1 day ago
Our analysts' forecasts for average 2022 Euro area inflation have risen uninterruptedly so far this year, and now s… https://t.co/0eTYsBY7V9
1 day ago
4 days ago
Elevated prices for fuel will continue to drive inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa, as transport accounts for a large… https://t.co/W2PGPPQgbg
1 week ago
Most large Asian economies will lose steam in 2023, as pent-up demand eases following the lifting of Covid-19 restr… https://t.co/YyvSOSqBI4
1 week ago