Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists continued to trim their forecasts for 2025 GDP growth in May due to greater global protectionism. The U.S. has seen its forecast cut the most in the G7 so far this year, but is still expected to be the bloc’s top performer thanks to a loose fiscal stance and a dynamic tech sector. Germany should be a laggard due to a weak industrial sector.
Major Economies Inflation
In April vs March, inflation was stable in Japan and the Euro area, jumped in the UK due to a scheduled energy tariff adjustment, and declined in Canada and the U.S. on lower fuel price pressures. Inflation is projected to average between 2.0% and 3.0% in the G7 this year. The U.S. and UK will see the bloc’s highest inflation rates, and France the lowest rate.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -11.5 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -4.8 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -5.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -3.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 133 | 127 | 120 | 119 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.03 | -0.02 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 3.71 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 48,773 | 53,997 | 55,090 | 58,285 | 60,348 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,856 | 3,481 | 3,984 | 3,823 | 3,809 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,938 | 4,768 | 5,517 | 5,187 | 5,341 |