Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Regional growth will ease from 2023 in 2024 as softer momentum in the U.S. caps private spending and investment. However, the expansion will top the prior 10-year average on rebounding exports, resilient tourist inflows, and lower inflation and interest rates. Political instability, extreme weather and the health of the U.S. economy are key factors to watch.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
Regional inflation was broadly unchanged at January’s 2.2% in February, but available data suggests it rose in March–April. In 2024, regional price pressures will fall below their 2023 levels and the prior 10-year average of 3.2% on the delayed impact of previous interest rate hikes. Weaker-than-expected currencies and commodity price shocks remain upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2020.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.2 | 62.5 | 58.1 | 54.3 | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,648 | 5,217 | 5,764 | 6,403 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -7.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.2 | - | - | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 1.2 | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Standing Lending Facility Rate (%, eop) | 3.57 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.64 |
| Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) | 110 | 115 | 146 | 134 | 139 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.4 | 0.2 | - | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 77.5 | 68.5 | 91.6 | 110.3 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 121.0 | 100.2 | 137.1 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 61.6 | 74.2 | 80.6 | 79.5 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 66.0 | 76.5 | - | - | - |