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Latest Reports

  • July 29, 2014

    The global GDP growth outlook was revised down for the third consecutive month; FocusEconomics panelists cut the 2014 growth forecast for the global economy by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%. The result was driven by downward revisions to the outlook for the United States and the BRIC economies. Next year, panelists see the global economy picking up the pace and expanding 3.4%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast.

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  • August 12, 2014

    Latin America remains trapped in a period of marked economic deceleration due to two main factors: Weaker global demand is impacting some countries’ external sectors, particularly those countries in which the external sector is dependent upon the export of commodities. Soft growth in investment in other countries is also contributing to the region’s deceleration. Analysts polled by LatinFocus lowered Latin America's GDP growth forecasts again in August. Participants now see the region's GDP expanding 1.6% in 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's estimate. This is the 16th consecutive month in which panelists have lowered the region's economic outlook and, if the result is in line with the forecast, this will represent the slowest pace of expansion since 2009. August's downward revision was the result of lower growth prospects for 7 of the 11 economies surveyed, including Latin America's powerhouses Brazil and Mexico, while panelists left the growth estimates unchanged for the other 4 economies surveyed. Economists are also less optimistic about the prospects for 2015 and reduced the regional GDP growth forecast from the 2.8% expected last month to 2.7%.
    The global economic recovery is still weak and geopolitical tremors continue to add uncertainty to the economic environment. Panelists polled by FocusEconomics downgraded the outlook for the global economy for the third consecutive month in August, lowering it by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. Analysts now see the global economy growing 2.8% in 2014. The downgrade was driven by cuts to the outlook for the United States and the BRIC economies. Moreover, political tensions involving Russia, Ukraine and the West continued to cloud the global outlook as western economies hardened their position against Russia after pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of Ukraine allegedly shot down a commercial airliner in mid-July. Consequently, leaders in the European Union announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, which are expected to exert additional pressure on the Russian economy. Although the Russian government had previously pledged not to engage in tit-for-tat measures, it responded to western sanctions by announcing a year-long ban on the import of a wide range of agricultural and food products from the United States and the European Union, as well as Australia, Canada and Norway. In addition, Russian authorities threatened possible sanctions on the aerospace, shipbuilding and automotive sectors. Most analysts warn that the mutual economic sanctions are likely to exacerbate the already difficult economic situation in Russia and also in the European Union.

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  • August 12, 2014

    The 2014 economic outlook for Central America and the Caribbean was unchanged in August although challenges to the region persist. This month’s result reflected stable growth prospects for 8 of the 12 economies surveyed, while FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists cut their economic forecasts for Costa Rica, Haiti and Panama. Belize was the only country that experienced an upward revision to its economic outlook. On a regional level, Central America is expected to grow 4.0% in 2014, led by Panama with a projected 6.7% GDP expansion and followed by Nicaragua, with an expected 4.4% GDP increase. Meanwhile, the Caribbean’s GDP is projected to increase 1.5%. The worst performers are expected to be Jamaica (2014: +1.2%) and Puerto Rico—the only economy expected to experience an economic contraction (2014: -0.9%).

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  • August 19, 2014

    The outlook for ex-Japan Asia was stable for the third consecutive period this month as FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists maintained their growth forecasts for 2014 at 6.2%. The stable outlook mainly reflects unrevised projections for 11 of the 15 economies surveyed, which include regional powerhouses China and India. Projections for Hong Kong and Singapore deteriorated this month, while Brunei and Taiwan saw their prospects improve. Forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics left their regional growth projections for next year unchanged at last month’s 6.4%.

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  • July 29, 2014

    The 2014 GDP outlook for the Euro area was stable for a second consecutive month as FocusEconomics panelists maintained their 1.1% projection. The result reflected stable projections for 11 of the 18 economies in the region. The forecasts for four economies (Estonia, France, Italy and Latvia) were revised downward, while three economies’ (Ireland, Slovakia and Slovenia) forecasts were revised upward. Panelists expect the Euro area economy to accelerate slightly in 2015 and maintained their forecast of a 1.5% expansion in GDP, which has not been changed since May.

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  • August 5, 2014

    Growth forecasts for Eastern Europe improved this month. The upward revision marks the first improvement in over a year and mostly reflects a lift to Turkey’s growth forecast, which was more than sufficient to offset further cuts to the growth projections for Ukraine. Thus, the growth forecast for the region inched up from the 1.4% expected last month to 1.5% this month. Along with Turkey, three additional countries out of the fourteen surveyed experienced upward revisions. The outlook for six countries, including Russia, remained unchanged, and the forecasts for four economies deteriorated. The growth prospects for 2015 stabilized at 2.4%, thus ending the streak of eight consecutive downward revisions.

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