Consumption in Vietnam

Vietnam - Consumption
GDP grows at softest pace since Q1 2022 in Q4
GDP growth fell to 5.9% year on year in the fourth quarter from 13.7% in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the slowest expansion since Q1, driven by a less favorable base effect. Overall, Q4’s result led to 8.0% annual growth in 2022, slightly higher than our panelists’ most recent expectations of 7.5%.
Significant slowdowns occurred in the services, industry and construction sectors. Services expanded 8.1% (Q3: 19.3%), industry 3.6% (Q3: 11.1%) and construction 6.7% (Q3: 17.5%). That said, growth in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector accelerated to 3.9% (Q3: 3.7%).
Looking ahead, quarterly yoy growth is set to remain robust in Q1 as increased post-pandemic spending and exports remain resilient, likely boosted by increased tourism amid China’s reopening. That said, higher interest rates will likely add downward pressure to activity.
On the outlook, analysts at United Overseas Bank said:
“The strong growth seen in 2022 showed Vietnam’s resilience and ability to pull off a recovery from the damages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, due to its diversified economic sectors in manufacturing and services. However, overall growth momentum is likely to moderate further in 2023, as policy tightening from major central banks weigh on external demand.”
Our panelists expect GDP to expand 6.1% in 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.7% in 2024.
Vietnam - Consumption Data
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumption (annual variation in %) | 9.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | - |
Vietnam Facts
Value | Change | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
Bond Yield | 3.38 | -0.13 % | Dec 31 |
Exchange Rate | 23,173 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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Economic News
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Vietnam: Inflation comes in at highest level since March 2020 in December
December 29, 2022
Inflation edged up to 4.5% in December, following November’s 4.4%.
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Vietnam: GDP grows at softest pace since Q1 2022 in Q4
December 29, 2022
GDP growth fell to 5.9% year on year in the fourth quarter from 13.7% in the third quarter.
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Vietnam: Industrial output records slowest growth since January in December
December 29, 2022
Industrial output growth slowed significantly in December to 3.6% in annual terms, following November’s downward revision to 6.9%.
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Vietnam: Inflation comes in at highest level since March 2020 in November
November 29, 2022
Inflation inched up to 4.4% in November, above October’s 4.3%.
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Vietnam: Industrial output growth eases to 10-month low in November
November 29, 2022
Industrial production increased 10.4% year on year in November (October: +16.5% yoy).