Venezuela Economic Outlook
A crisis-ridden economy:
Once one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations, Venezuela has experienced a historic economic collapse over the past decade. The country, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, saw its GDP contract by over 75% between 2014 and 2021 due to economic mismanagement, falling oil production, and U.S. sanctions. Hyperinflation, widespread poverty, and a mass exodus of over seven million Venezuelans have further deepened the crisis. While recent policy adjustments have slowed inflation and brought modest growth in 2022 and 2023, economic conditions remain fragile.
Oil dependency and production decline:The Venezuelan economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, which have historically accounted for over 90% of foreign earnings. However, years of underinvestment, corruption, and mismanagement at state-run oil company PDVSA have caused production to plummet from over 3 million barrels per day in the 1990s to around 800,000 barrels per day in 2023. U.S. sanctions, first imposed in 2017 and tightened in 2019, have further restricted Venezuela’s ability to sell oil in global markets, though some relief was granted in late 2023 in exchange for political reforms.
Hyperinflation and dollarization:Venezuela suffered one of the worst episodes of hyperinflation in modern history, with inflation surpassing 1,000,000% in 2018. While inflation has since moderated, it remains one of the highest in the world. In response, the government has allowed widespread de facto dollarization, with most transactions now conducted in U.S. dollars rather than the nearly worthless Venezuelan bolívar. This has helped stabilize prices but has also led to economic duality, where access to dollars determines living standards, deepening inequality.
Humanitarian crisis and investment challenges:Venezuela’s economic collapse has triggered severe humanitarian consequences, with widespread food and medicine shortages, infrastructure deterioration, and chronic power outages. While the private sector has seen some recovery in recent years, investment remains extremely low due to political uncertainty, weak property rights, and capital controls. International creditors remain wary, as Venezuela remains in default on billions of dollars in foreign debt.
Venezuela’s economic outlook:The Venezuelan economy is expected to see slight improvements in the short term if oil production stabilizes and sanctions are eased. However, long-term growth prospects remain weak due to structural inefficiencies, political instability, and international isolation. Without significant institutional reforms, a revival of the oil sector, and a more favorable business climate, Venezuela is unlikely to regain its former economic standing.
Venezuela's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 139 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 129,313,578 billion in 2022.
Nominal GDP of USD 139 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 4,804,160,106 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 5,252 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 5,213 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 9.6% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 9.6% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 9.8% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2014, services accounted for 51.7% of overall GDP, manufacturing 12.1%, other industrial activity 31.2%, and agriculture 5.0%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 75.3% of GDP in 2014, government consumption 14.6%, fixed investment 24.8%, and net exports -14.7%.International trade
In 2013, manufactured products made up 1.8% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 97.7%, food 0.0%, ores and metals 0.4% and agricultural raw materials 0.0%, with other categories accounting for 0.1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 70.7% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 0.8%, food 18.4%, ores and metals 1.2% and agricultural raw materials 0.8%, with other goods accounting for 8.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 33.70 billion in 2018, while total imports were USD 12.80 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded an average annual decrease of 9.8% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Venezuela, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Venezuela's fiscal deficit averaged 8.0% of GDP in the decade to 2017. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 7.5% in the decade to 2018. For more information on Venezuela's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 8242.3% in the decade to 2023. Go to our Venezuela inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Venezuela's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 32.24%, up from 0.51% a decade earlier. See our Venezuela monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the bolívar weakened by 87.9% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the bolívar, click here.
Economic situation in Venezuela
The Finance Observatory, a local research institute, reports that GDP contracted by 2.7% year on year in Q1 2025—the steepest decline since 2023. This was driven by a slump in the non-oil sector, amid reduced government expenditure and soaring inflation eroding household purchasing power. However, the oil industry bucked the trend, posting solid growth thanks to the output of international energy firms such as Chevron. Turning to Q2, the economic outlook appears to be worsening further. The bolivar’s continued freefall—the currency lost almost half its value vs the USD from January to mid-June—is spurring inflation and weighing on purchasing power. Moreover, the U.S. revoked foreign oil licenses in late May, which could be hitting crude production and exports. Lower exports, in turn, could feed through to an ever-faster rate of currency depreciation ahead.Venezuela Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.43 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 18 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Venezuela in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 43 economic indicators for Venezuela from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Venezuela economy. To download a sample report on the Venezuela's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.