GDP in Romania
Romania - GDP (billions of Euros)
GDP growth records slowest increase since Q1 2021 in the fourth quarter
GDP growth slowed markedly to 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, from 6.9% in the third quarter. While Q4's reading was the weakest result since Q1, it still placed GDP growth for 2021 as a whole at 6.0%, marking a sharp rebound from 2020’s 3.8% decline. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.1% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 0.4% growth. Q4's reading marked the first decline since Q2 2020.
Domestically, private consumption growth was stable at 9.1% year-on-year in Q4. Meanwhile, government consumption dropped at a milder rate of 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: -2.4% yoy), and fixed investment declined at a more moderate rate of 0.2% in Q4, from the 1.4% contraction recorded in the prior quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 2.9% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which was below the third quarter's 7.3% expansion. In addition, imports of goods and services growth waned to 5.3% in Q4 (Q3: +11.2% yoy).
Commenting on the outlook, Ciprian Dascalu, analyst at Erste Bank, said:
“We expect sequential growth rates for the first two quarters of 2022 significantly weaker than before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with first quarter likely to post a negative growth relative to Q4 2021 which should translate into a technical recession if no data revisions. The economy should recover sharply in the second half of the year, assuming a de-escalation of the conflict.”
Our analysts see the economy growing 4.0% in 2022, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2023.
Romania - GDP (EUR bn) Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (EUR bn) | 160 | 171 | 188 | 204 | 223 |
Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Economic News
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Romania: NBR speeds up policy tightening with sixth consecutive rate hike in May
May 10, 2022
At its meeting on 10 May, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 3.75% from April’s 3.00%, thus marking the sixth successive hike.
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Romania: Industrial output grows in February
April 13, 2022
Industrial output increased 0.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in February, following January's 0.4%.
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Romania: Inflation comes in at highest level since October 2004 in March
April 12, 2022
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.88% over the previous month in March, picking up from the 0.58% rise recorded in February.
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Romania: NBR delivers fifth consecutive hike at April meeting
April 5, 2022
At its meeting on 5 April, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 3.00% from 2.50%, marking the fifth successive hike.
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Romania: Industrial output expands at quickest pace in six months in January
March 14, 2022
Industrial output grew 1.1% year-on-year in January, contrasting December’s 1.2% decline and marking the first growth in five months.
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