Consumption in Romania
Romania - Consumption
GDP growth records slowest increase since Q1 2021 in the fourth quarter
GDP growth slowed markedly to 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, from 6.9% in the third quarter. While Q4's reading was the weakest result since Q1, it still placed GDP growth for 2021 as a whole at 6.0%, marking a sharp rebound from 2020’s 3.8% decline. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.1% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 0.4% growth. Q4's reading marked the first decline since Q2 2020.
Domestically, private consumption growth was stable at 9.1% year-on-year in Q4. Meanwhile, government consumption dropped at a milder rate of 0.4% in Q4 (Q3: -2.4% yoy), and fixed investment declined at a more moderate rate of 0.2% in Q4, from the 1.4% contraction recorded in the prior quarter.
On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 2.9% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which was below the third quarter's 7.3% expansion. In addition, imports of goods and services growth waned to 5.3% in Q4 (Q3: +11.2% yoy).
Commenting on the outlook, Ciprian Dascalu, analyst at Erste Bank, said:
“We expect sequential growth rates for the first two quarters of 2022 significantly weaker than before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with first quarter likely to post a negative growth relative to Q4 2021 which should translate into a technical recession if no data revisions. The economy should recover sharply in the second half of the year, assuming a de-escalation of the conflict.”
Our analysts see the economy growing 4.0% in 2022, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2023.
Romania - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||5.8||8.4||10.0||7.2||6.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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May 10, 2022
At its meeting on 10 May, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 3.75% from April’s 3.00%, thus marking the sixth successive hike.
April 13, 2022
Industrial output increased 0.6% compared to the same month a year earlier in February, following January's 0.4%.
April 12, 2022
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.88% over the previous month in March, picking up from the 0.58% rise recorded in February.
April 5, 2022
At its meeting on 5 April, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 3.00% from 2.50%, marking the fifth successive hike.
March 14, 2022
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.58% in February over the previous month, easing from January's 1.48% rise.