GDP in France
France - GDP
France Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most important measure for evaluating the performance of France’s economy (Economic Growth, GDP). France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques [INSEE]) publishes GDP figures on an annual and quarterly basis. FocusEconomics publishes news on GDP on its website (GDP News). The table below shows the change of price-adjusted GDP for France, typically referred to as France’s economic growth rate. A more complete assessment of France’s GDP can be found below the table.
France - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.1||0.0||0.8||0.2||1.2|
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France GDP Chart
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics calculations.
OverviewGross domestic product (GDP) measures the economic performance of a country over a given period, typically a year or a quarter. It is therefore the most important economic indicator to evaluate the country’s economy (see our GDP page for more information on this indicator).
France’s GDP data (National Accounts, NA) is produced by INSEE based on the European System of National Accounts (ESA 1995; ESA 2010). The office’s data, based on ESA 1995, reach back to 1978.
France GDP Growth Performance
In the 10 years before the economic crisis, from 1999 to 2008, France’s GDP grew 2.0% on average per year. Protected, in part, by a small reliance on external trade and stable private consumption rates, France’s GDP only contracted 2.9% in 2009. However, recovery has been slow and the economy has stagnated since 2009, with an average economic growth rate of 1.1% per year from 2009 to 2013. Recently, France’s economy has stalled, failing to grow in 2012, and expanding a meager 0.4% in 2013.
Structure of French Gross Domestic Product
Private consumption has traditionally been the driver of economic growth in France and it moderated the impact of the economic crisis in 2009. However, in 2012, private consumption contracted for the first time in over two decades in the aftermath of the crisis, amid consumer confidence levels that had deteriorated and slow economic growth rates. After government consumption, which has remained relatively stable in the past decade, investment is the largest component of France’s economic growth. Investment was the GDP component that was hit the hardest by the economic crisis in France and fixed investment plummeted 9% in 2009. Following a rebound to 1.9% growth in 2010, investment has languished ever since and it contracted 0.8% in 2013. Additionally, France is a net importer, however, the external sector has a very small impact on the economy.
Currently, services are the main contributor to France’s economy, with over 70% of GDP stemming from this sector. Significant subdivisions of services include the banking and financial, insurance and tourism sectors. Manufacturing accounts for just over 10% of France’s GDP and France is a global leader in the aerospace, automotive and luxury goods industries. Despite the fact that agriculture only accounts for around 2% of French GDP, it is regarded as a strategic industry in France and is often the beneficiary of government subsidies or protectionist policies.
When are French GDP Data Released?
INSEE publishes GDP data on both a quarterly and an annual basis. The quarterly and annual data are consistently linked. The provisional annual national account result is published in mid-May of the following year, the semi-finalized annual account published the following May and the finalized annual account is published in May of the following year. Quarterly data is released in two forms. First, the preliminary figures are released no later than 45 days after the end of the quarter. The second form includes the detailed figures, which are issued less than 90 days after the end of the quarter and provide updates to the preliminary estimate. A detailed release calendar is available on INSEE’s website.
How are French GDP Figures Computed?
INSEE calculates GDP by applying all three methods: production, expenditure and income approaches. However, in the expenditure and income calculations, a component of GDP is derived as a residual. The production approach determines the value added of all producers as the difference between the value of goods and services produced (output) and intermediate consumption, adding the taxes on products (such as tobacco, mineral oil and value added tax), and subtracting the subsidies on products. In addition, the statistical office measures the gross domestic product through the demand side. The expenditure approach calculates the expenditure for the final use of goods and services, i.e., final consumption expenditure of households and government final consumption expenditure, capital formation and the balance of exports and imports (net exports). Finally, the government of France calculates national income through compiling labor income, rental income, interest income and profits. Once reliable annual estimates are available, statistical discrepancies are removed.
How Accurate are French GDP numbers?
INSEE publishes the first release of gross domestic product data to meet users’ needs for up-to-date results. However, INSEE acknowledges that the database is not yet complete at the release of the preliminary figures. These figures are revised several times as more statistical information becomes available. INSEE publishes the final gross domestic product data around three years later. For quarterly national accounts, INSEE estimates the mean absolute revision is 0.06 percentage points between the first and second estimates of growth (based on the years 1991 to 2013). In addition, INSEE periodically updates the base year of measurement along European guidelines.
Why is French GDP Data Important?
GDP growth is generally considered the most important indicator for measuring the economic performance of a country. The rate of change of real GDP is referred to as economic growth and is the best gauge of an economy’s ups and downs. It is particularly useful for short-term analysis. Next to the headline GDP growth figure, the GDP report is packed with important information that provides an in-depth view on the state of the French economy. France’s economy is the fifth largest in the world and represents one-fifth of the Euro area’s GDP, therefore French GDP growth data is closely followed in the market.
Where Can I Get Forecasts for France’s GDP?
Forecasts for French GDP growth are elaborated by many sources. The government, banks, consultancies and think tanks closely watch the French economy and regularly update their projections for French GDP growth. FocusEconomics collects more than 30 different forecasts for French GDP and provides an average (Consensus Forecast) from the economists surveyed. Together with the minimum and the maximum projections for French GDP growth, you receive a comprehensive overview on France’s future GDP growth rates.
Forecasts for France’s GDP growth are included in the monthly FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast for France, the monthly FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast for the Euro Area and the monthly Major Economies (G7 and BRIC) reports. All reports are available both on an ad-hoc basis and via an annual subscription (including optional Excel support). Download a free sample or purchase the report directly via our Online Store. The report is available immediately after purchase.
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December 16, 2016
The Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped from a revised 51.4 (previously reported: 51.6) in November to 52.8 in December, vastly overshooting market analysts’ expectations of a softer 51.6 increase.
December 16, 2016
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ (INSEE) business climate survey on manufacturing activity, the French business confidence indicator jumped from 102 points in November to 106 points in December.
December 14, 2016
According to revised figures released published by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 14 December, consumer prices stayed flat in November (October: 0.0%).
November 29, 2016
According to the second estimate released by the Statistical Office (INSEE) on 29 November, the French economy expanded a soft 0.2% in the third quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, matching the preliminary estimate released by the INSEE in October.
November 24, 2016
According to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ (INSEE) business climate survey on manufacturing activity, the business confidence indicator was at 103 points in November, identical to the October figure.